COVID-19 detected in United States

[Jacob]

Stories like this is what really makes me curious on the real number of cases out there.

Antarctic Cruise - 60% of Passengers Positive for COVID19

 

[skelly]

Stories like this is what really makes me curious on the real number of cases out there.

Antarctic Cruise - 60% of Passengers Positive for COVID19

This is why I don’t do cruises. Always have heard accounts of someone getting sick in the boat then half or more get the bug. These stories happen yearly for years...

 

[KoD]

Does anybody else think that Dr. Anthony Fauci sounds like Larry David?

Stories like this is what really makes me curious on the real number of cases out there.

Antarctic Cruise - 60% of Passengers Positive for COVID19

Yeah, with 128 positive cases, 6 symptomatic and being air lifted off and the remaining 122 being asymptomatic and afebrile ... Rather odd

 

[ghost]

Someone smarter than me help me figure this out. I've seen in the media that the quoted mortality rate for COVID ranges from about 1.5% to 4.0% depending on the source. I noticed as of this evening there have been a little over 430,000 cases in the U.S. Out of those ~430,000, 37,092 have been resolved. Of the 37,092 that have been resolved... 22,356 have recovered and 14,736 have died. That is a 40% mortality rate for the resolved cases. 393,118 are still ongoing and unresolved. This is far greater than the 1.5-4.0% mortality rate that is constantly being tossed about. What am I missing here?

 

[Jacob]

Someone smarter than me help me figure this out. I've seen in the media that the quoted mortality rate for COVID ranges from about 1.5% to 4.0% depending on the source. I noticed as of this evening there have been a little over 430,000 cases in the U.S. Out of those ~430,000, 37,092 have been resolved. Of the 37,092 that have been resolved... 22,356 have recovered and 14,736 have died. That is a 40% mortality rate for the resolved cases. 393,118 are still ongoing and unresolved. This is far greater than the 1.5-4.0% mortality rate that is constantly being tossed about. What am I missing here?

I believe the only cases that currently count as "recovered" are people that went on to test negative for the virus after getting better. People that test positive, aren't hospitalized, and recover on their own aren't recorded as "recovered" right now. Eventually they will be counted as recovered.

 

[Kory]

@Jacob...you were asking about golf courses. Ol Colony is opening back up apparently.

 

[Jacob]

@Jacob...you were asking about golf courses. Ol Colony is opening back up apparently.

Yeah in the SAH order golf courses were allowed to stay open. I’m playing tomorrow actually. My course has done a lot to mitigate things: you can’t rake the bunkers, there’s a foam donut in the holes to keep the ball from going in, they aren’t allowing people to group up and settle bets after rounds, etc. I also think they are only allowing one person per cart.

It’s all a bit different, but if done safely it is one of the few good ways to still socialize and distance at the same time.

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Yeah in the SAH order golf courses were allowed to stay open. I’m playing tomorrow actually. My course has done a lot to mitigate things: you can’t rake the bunkers, there’s a foam donut in the holes to keep the ball from going in, they aren’t allowing people to group up and settle bets after rounds, etc. I also think they are only allowing one person per cart.

It’s all a bit different, but if done safely it is one of the few good ways to still socialize and distance at the same time.

Did they space the tee times farther apart so there aren’t multiple people congregating at tee boxes?

 

[Jacob]

Did they space the tee times farther apart so there aren’t multiple people congregating at tee boxes?

Nope, tee times are still every 10 minutes. I haven't played since the end of February, before all of this started taking place. Looking at the tee sheet for tomorrow, the first available time is...5PM, so I'll be curious to see how well people follow the rules.

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Nope, tee times are still every 10 minutes. I haven't played since the end of February, before all of this started taking place. Looking at the tee sheet for tomorrow, the first available time is...5PM, so I'll be curious to see how well people follow the rules.

I would anticipate the most likely place for social distancing violations would be at the turn.

 

[Mike S]

Interesting article regarding California and possible "herd immunity"

New California antibody study could point to possible herd immunity to COVID-19

The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.

www.ksbw.com

The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.

 

[bjdeming]

Just read that UAB is doing a study on nitric oxide.

Any COVID-19 patient in UAB's intensive care unit who is using a ventilator to breathe may qualify for the study.

 

[Jacob]

I would anticipate the most likely place for social distancing violations would be at the turn.

Actually had no issues there, the biggest thing I saw were some groups discussing teams/bets before the round, but they were at least somewhat mindful and standing a few feet apart from each other. Since I walked it was easy for me to keep my distance, and turned out to be a perfect spring day. Just a bit of an odd feeling being outside on a perfect day, in a place where some sense of normalcy exists, but at the same time knowing things are so different around the world right now.

If that doesn't make sense...it's 3AM, and I just got an infant back to sleep. I'll have to re-read this in the morning.

 

[Kory]

I think this is a fair point. Holy cow.

 

[skelly]

I think this is a fair point. Holy cow.

And I reject the idea being pushed that we need to have “papers” to be allowed to do things. Media is bringing up the question. Same people that freak over the idea of “voter ID” being a violation of rights...

 

[Kory]

And I reject the idea being pushed that we need to have “papers” to be allowed to do things. Media is bringing up the question. Same people that freak over the idea of “voter ID” being a violation of rights...

I think we can be concerned over the virus and think its serious, but also reject the government overreach. It's almost making me wonder if they're doing this to see how far they can push us. And boy, are they getting pretty far....

 

[Jacob]

I think we can be concerned over the virus and think its serious, but also reject the government overreach. It's almost making me wonder if they're doing this to see how far they can push us. And boy, are they getting pretty far....

I think if we were seeing anything like what the original predictions were that justified all the government actions, people would be a lot more inclined to sit back and go with it. (original predictions assuming social distancing/lockdowns, not business as usual predictions) If we don't see any major flares over the next couple weeks outside of the NYC area, you'll start seeing some civil unrest if they don't start opening some things back up at the start of May.

 

[Kory]

Saw this post and I think it sums up my thoughts very well. We’re just destroying ourselves for something that will acquire herd immunity eventually. And by vaccine it’ll be at least 12-18...and that’s the shortest estimate.

If it's between 100K more deaths and avoiding a depression, or staying in lockdown for 3+ months and creating global economic depression, then i'd rather have the former. Especially since the 100K deaths would be a wash compared to the well studied effects of a depression on a population (suicide, crime, education, etc).

The death rate is estimated at 0.37% by Germany, with individuals below 40 having a death rate sub 0.08% based on other statistics in high testing countries (Korea). The individuals at risk are elderly with no immune systems. The proliferation of it's spread also means herd immunity is an eventual result, likely before a vaccine can ever be mass produced and distributed. So you're looking at 3+ years of continual lockdowns with unsustainable economic conditions or just getting it over with now and loosening restrictions to where the curve isn't terrible but the economy also doesn't flatline.

We're at negative interest rates on bonds, burgeoning national debt across the globe, and essentially staring hyper stagflation (recession and inflation) in the face. In the past month we've printed 5X as much USD as the money in the wallets of the bottom 50% of the population. Unions in Italy are already warning that they're on the brink of collapse in terms of supporting their workers. The dams going to give sooner than later here.

 

[Kory]

Just wait til we start having food storages. That's when the unrest will begin. It's coming!

 

[skelly]

We have to go back to work and work through this. If you catch it it is not a death sentence. We are starting to get a grasp on who is more at risk, they have to take extra precautions and stay isolated as possible. But it’s been said the cure can’t be worse than the disease...