Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Maxis_s]

Hmmm idk. Radar confirmed by MEG and the CC drop lines up perfectly with the couplet. If it's a false TDS, then it's a pretty convincing one.

CC lined up with lower reflectivity values just north of the hook, that's why I don't think it's one.

Latest scan shows a weak CC drop located with a weaker TVS that also lines up on reflectivity though. Probably a tornado still on the ground.

 

[Mrklem10]

Storm south of Fordyce, Arkansas.... What do you guys think...

 

[Mrklem10]

Thoughts....

 

[AJS]

Thoughts....

It’s pretty discrete. If it taps into the environment fully, it could get going.

 

[TH2002]

View attachment 38946
CC lined up with lower reflectivity values just north of the hook, that's why I don't think it's one.
View attachment 38947
Latest scan shows a weak CC drop located with a weaker TVS that also lines up on reflectivity though. Probably a tornado still on the ground.

Okay, as far as that initial spike goes you may be right about that.

In any case, confident the cell is cycling now - there's a new hook and couplet forming on it. Undoubtedly has the potential to do something major over the next few hours as it moves in the general direction of Murfreesboro.

 

[AJS]

@UncleJuJu98 Do you happen to have a HRRR run for Saturday?

 

[Maxis_s]

Okay, as far as that initial spike goes you may be right about that.

In any case, confident the cell is cycling now - there's a new hook and couplet forming on it. Undoubtedly has the potential to do something major over the next few hours as it moves in the general direction of Murfreesboro.

The upper level rotation on this thing is quite powerful so I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong tornado with this cell.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It’s pretty discrete. If it taps into the environment fully, it could get going.

that supercell is a behemoth, I really don't want that one to try and produce.

 

[AJS]

Btw, since I have a free day Saturday, looks like this might ACTUALLY be my first chase of the year. Certainly my best chance.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

@UncleJuJu98 Do you happen to have a HRRR run for Saturday?

For the Arkansas area?

 

[AJS]

For the Arkansas area?

Eastern Texas. Think that is where I may plan to chase.

 

[Kds86z]

Thoughts....

It’s in the right area…

 

[AJS]

It’s in the right area, but it looks a bit messy on radar from LZK.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Eastern Texas. Think that is where I may plan to chase.

18z barely gets into range for Saturday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Cloud tops are extremely high over the Arkansas supercell.

 

[AJS]

18z barely gets into range for Saturday. View attachment 38949

Hmmm. Might have to find another spot.

 

[Justin Hindman]

View attachment 38946
CC lined up with lower reflectivity values just north of the hook, that's why I don't think it's one.
View attachment 38947
Latest scan shows a weak CC drop located with a weaker TVS that also lines up on reflectivity though. Probably a tornado still on the ground.

That’s hail , it picks up to if it’s large enough

 

[Kds86z]

Cloud tops are extremely high over the Arkansas supercell. View attachment 38950

That’s things got me worried..

 

[slenker]

18z barely gets into range for Saturday. View attachment 38949

Are those confluence bands I see?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Are those confluence bands I see?

I think so