tennessee storm chaser
Member
meg out of memphis nws has their eye the system now,, were just day or so they pretty sure would be way south... see the trend keeps with a slower ejection of the trough
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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
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- Norman, OK
That 18z GFS run, as fast as it is, is still a pretty significant severe wx event across the southern halves of MS, AL and GA Sunday.
The GFS early on is looking slower.
Kory
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- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Slower and more NW. All guidance points to a significant severe wx event Sunday.
Equus
Member
Definitely slower, still not near the European models but very much slower...
- Messages
- 1,411
- Location
- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
slower for sure...trending toward the Euro.
Kory
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- 4,928
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- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
As I said before, there is some STUPID crazy shear under that 60-70kt LLJ axis...overlain a warm sector with upper 60s to 70 dews.
The GFS is again slower, more north with the warm front, and stronger with the shear! My stomach turns when I see it. I can only imagine what high resolution models will show as we get nearer.
- Messages
- 1,411
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- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
yes, this is serious looking for sure, that kind of shear in mid April when the instability can move so much faster, plus remember GOM waters are warmer than average.
Kory
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PDS tor soundings all in the warm sector on the GFS. Pulled 3 in West Alabama alone valid at 18z Sunday.
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- Norman, OK
Some of the crazier soundings I've ever seen the GFS print out just came with that 00z run. Shear profiles (should they verify close to what is being suggested) here make just about any storm that hits 40 dBZ start rotating. If we get any semblance of surface heating, there is going to be a big problem. Even without a lot of sunshine, such incredible low level wind fields are sure to get the moisture there. An EML would just be...well I don't really want to think about it.
The presence of the right exit region of the STJ over the Gulf is what separates this from a number of other Gulf Coast events that have struggled. That should help suppress development over the Gulf prior to the frontal passage.
Alarm bells are going off here, with it being Easter, I hope people are ready for this with all of the COVID complications dominating the news.
The presence of the right exit region of the STJ over the Gulf is what separates this from a number of other Gulf Coast events that have struggled. That should help suppress development over the Gulf prior to the frontal passage.
Alarm bells are going off here, with it being Easter, I hope people are ready for this with all of the COVID complications dominating the news.
- Messages
- 1,411
- Location
- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
Great example of the gfs trend....
The GFS, which has been a progressive outlier among global models, continues to trend slower/more amplified for Sunday’s severe weather potential in Dixie. This allows for better moisture return into a broad warm sector. 5-run trend valid 09z Sun helps us visualize. #alwx #mswx https://t.co/kzRLzJjA8Y
The GFS, which has been a progressive outlier among global models, continues to trend slower/more amplified for Sunday’s severe weather potential in Dixie. This allows for better moisture return into a broad warm sector. 5-run trend valid 09z Sun helps us visualize. #alwx #mswx https://t.co/kzRLzJjA8Y
Bama Ravens
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Agree, but at least most people will probably be home rather than out-and-about like they normally would be on Easter.
jmills
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- Messages
- 138
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- Troy, AL/Montevallo, AL
That run of the GFS was what was needed to really start sounding the alarms. As Andy mentioned, the subsidence in the forward exit region of the jet is going to keep the Gulf coast clear and with that clean source region and a screaming LLJ you're going to end up with a large warm sector. Throw in some incredible dynamics and somebody will end up having a very bad day.
Equus
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- Messages
- 7
- Location
- Greenville, SC
SPC has the 30% circle on D4 for the southern halves of MS/AL - and mentions strong, long-tracked tors. I only expect wording to get bolder as we get closer, assuming no major changes occur. This could be a widespread event for many states.
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- 7
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- Greenville, SC
tennessee storm chaser
Member
Having hard time not thinking that 30 percent area is to far south be honest ...
- Messages
- 7
- Location
- Greenville, SC
I agree - events tend to favor northern gradients of best parameters...and that seems to be trending northward.
Kory
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- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
SPC using “outbreak” wording. This looks ugly, folks.