Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[buckeye05]

Looks pretty impressive on reflectivity but not much there on velocity yet. Definitely seeing some lowerings on chaser streams but nothing beyond that so far.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS most notably since yesterday’s 18z run has trended toward the more severe solution for Wednesday. Finally, falling in line with the other models.

 

[buckeye05]

Definitely trying to do something right now

 

[Brice Wood]

Definitely trying to do something right now
View attachment 13363

Structure reminds me of the beginning stages of the Moore 2013 tornado

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Oh yeah, she's fixing to go if not already.

 

[TH2002]

Only thing missing now is the CC drop

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Now if only there could be 2 or 3 of these down the dryline tomorrow for the Plains chasers...

 

[cincywx]

insane radar presentation

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Fred Gossage]

Now if only there could be 2 or 3 of these down the dryline tomorrow for the Plains chasers...

 

[Fred Gossage]

Multi-vortex tornado has been down based on multiple chaser streams.

 

[OHWX97]

 

[andyhb]

Should note that this is not supposed to peak until around 00z or even after per most high res guidance. Think Conway might have some issues later if this cell keeps going into Central AR.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Should note that this is not supposed to peak until around 00z or even after per most high res guidance. Think Conway might have some issues later if this cell keeps going into Central AR.

Agreed. All we've really done so far is establish surface-based perturbations for when the low-level jet ramps up after sunset.

 

[OHWX97]

Likely a new tornado developing near Ratcliff and Caulksville, AR.

 

[TH2002]

Agreed. All we've really done so far is establish surface-based perturbations for when the low-level jet ramps up after sunset.

Is it possible more cells could fire in the S to NE OK vicinity as the LLJ increases in strength?

 

[buckeye05]

The cell just to the west near Lavaca is interacting with the main one, which could be holding it back from taking off, at least for the moment.

 

[MattPetrulli]

The cell just to the west near Lavaca is interacting with the main one, which could be holding it back from taking off, at least for the moment.

Imo the thing preventing it from taking off is meager low level shear, as seen from Ft Smith VWP and as mentioned in previous comments

Should improve as evening goes on, however. Especially watch those cells in SE Oklahoma that are currently severe warned.
Edit: Cell behind it as said could also factor in to this.

 

[TH2002]

Looks like a CC drop at first glance, but could just be radar noise given the lackluster velocity presentation?

 

[TornadoFan]

Wonder if that western storm is gonna become the main show.