CheeselandSkies
Member
HRRR now wants to put supercells in southwestern Minnesota tomorrow evening...lol.
Interesting , saw that not seeing sit unidirectional winds on euro or ukie and now nam model also , since it’s. Getting in range …. Now with the dry lline going be one hell a damage wind threat for sure . But with low level shear ukie euro showing going be some discrete super cells out in open large warm sector ahead . Something watchHRRR now wants to put supercells in southwestern Minnesota tomorrow evening...lol.
Welcome to TalkWeather! Glad to have you joining us! Hope you are right!For Wednesday the threat seems to be going up significantly across MO. AK,TN,MS,AL may get spared from what I see from morning convection. The models seem to suggest the atmosphere doesn’t recover from the early rain…
For Wednesday the threat seems to be going up significantly across MO. AK,TN,MS,AL may get spared from what I see from morning convection. The models seem to suggest the atmosphere doesn’t recover from the early rain
Looks spotty to me though be interesting what forms could put down outflow boundaries also … nam showingWelcome to TalkWeather! Glad to have you joining us! Hope you are right!
Based on modelled trends, I really doubt that those long-lived UH tracks will come to fruition. Linear forcing looks to be favoured throughout the warm sector.First CAMS to come in range for Wednesday (3KM NAM and HRW FV3) are a bit disconcerting. NWS seems convinced of a QLCS (at least on the northern end, in all the AFDs I've read) but the output looks at least semi-discrete with long, robust UH tracks.
Yeah I was looking at that possibility as well. It could definitely put down some outflow boundaries. The way I see it right now things look good for a big part of the south to dodge this bullet!Looks spotty to me though be interesting what forms could put down outflow boundaries also … nam showing
Spc will go with moderate risk in the first day 2 outlook confidentFrom some of the latest model guidance, it does fortunately look like Wednesday *may* have trended slightly away from a properly high-end day. Obviously could still trend the other way, and still looks pretty conducive to significant severe weather, so I will keep watching.
Still though, some model guidance (ECM, UKMO) is still suggestive of very high end potential, uncertainty is still high. It could go either way. Like I said, I will keep watching
The large-scale models have trended toward a significantly lower threat on Wednesday, so I think that the HRRR is overselling the discrete violent potential. I don’t see much support for widespread discrete activity, even over the most volatile portions of the warm sector. I think a line/QLCS is likely throughout the warm sector, with significant potential for damaging winds, which should still be monitored.Pretty big uptrend today from HRRR regarding Arkansas threat, could have multiple tornadic supercells with a sig tor possibility, threatening Little Rock metro in the evening.
I believe that is referencing tonights threat.The large-scale models have trended toward a significantly lower threat on Wednesday, so I think that the HRRR is overselling the discrete violent potential.
Correct.I believe that is referencing tonights threat.