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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

CheeselandSkies said:
HRRR now wants to put supercells in southwestern Minnesota tomorrow evening...lol.
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Interesting , saw that not seeing sit unidirectional winds on euro or ukie and now nam model also , since it’s. Getting in range …. Now with the dry lline going be one hell a damage wind threat for sure . But with low level shear ukie euro showing going be some discrete super cells out in open large warm sector ahead . Something watch
 
Edith said:
For Wednesday the threat seems to be going up significantly across MO. AK,TN,MS,AL may get spared from what I see from morning convection. The models seem to suggest the atmosphere doesn’t recover from the early rain…
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Welcome to TalkWeather! Glad to have you joining us! Hope you are right!
 
Edith said:
For Wednesday the threat seems to be going up significantly across MO. AK,TN,MS,AL may get spared from what I see from morning convection. The models seem to suggest the atmosphere doesn’t recover from the early rain
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WesL said:
Welcome to TalkWeather! Glad to have you joining us! Hope you are right!
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Looks spotty to me though be interesting what forms could put down outflow boundaries also … nam showing
 
CheeselandSkies said:
First CAMS to come in range for Wednesday (3KM NAM and HRW FV3) are a bit disconcerting. NWS seems convinced of a QLCS (at least on the northern end, in all the AFDs I've read) but the output looks at least semi-discrete with long, robust UH tracks.
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Based on modelled trends, I really doubt that those long-lived UH tracks will come to fruition. Linear forcing looks to be favoured throughout the warm sector.

Trend between Saturday’s and today’s 06Z GFS runs:

GFS-1.png

GFS-2.png


Heights are notably higher, the low is more occluded during peak heating, and curvature is minimised vs. earlier runs as far south as Arkansas.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Looks spotty to me though be interesting what forms could put down outflow boundaries also … nam showing
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Yeah I was looking at that possibility as well. It could definitely put down some outflow boundaries. The way I see it right now things look good for a big part of the south to dodge this bullet!
 
From some of the latest model guidance, it does fortunately look like Wednesday *may* have trended slightly away from a properly high-end day. Obviously could still trend the other way, and still looks pretty conducive to significant severe weather, so I will keep watching.

Still though, some model guidance (ECM, UKMO) is still suggestive of very high end potential, uncertainty is still high. It could go either way. Like I said, I will keep watching
 
UK_EF4 said:
From some of the latest model guidance, it does fortunately look like Wednesday *may* have trended slightly away from a properly high-end day. Obviously could still trend the other way, and still looks pretty conducive to significant severe weather, so I will keep watching.

Still though, some model guidance (ECM, UKMO) is still suggestive of very high end potential, uncertainty is still high. It could go either way. Like I said, I will keep watching
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Spc will go with moderate risk in the first day 2 outlook confident
 
10% hatched tornado probabilities and 30% hatched hail probabilities to compliment the upgrade to ENH over parts of OK and AR today... heads up.
 
Latest day 2 outlook has confined the 10% sig tornado probabilities to the triple point. It's becoming very clear that's where the highest potential is for supercells and tornadoes tomorrow. Good call by the SPC as there is way too much uncertainty with the dry line set up in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The potential for tornadic supercells is still there if storms can fire, but is looking increasingly likely cap will keep that from happening.
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MattPetrulli said:
Pretty big uptrend today from HRRR regarding Arkansas threat, could have multiple tornadic supercells with a sig tor possibility, threatening Little Rock metro in the evening.
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The large-scale models have trended toward a significantly lower threat on Wednesday, so I think that the HRRR is overselling the discrete violent potential. I don’t see much support for widespread discrete activity, even over the most volatile portions of the warm sector. I think a line/QLCS is likely throughout the warm sector, with significant potential for damaging winds, which should still be monitored.
 
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