Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Just the fact that the temperatures and dewpoints are about 20 degrees apart.

Just anecdotally, about 10-12 degree spreads, maybe 15 max seems ideal to get tornadoes that you can actually see. IIRC that's what we had on days like 3/31/23 and 4/26/24. Less than 10 degrees and you start getting grungy, ground-scraping cloud bases.
 
I do think Broyles was onto something and successfully snuffed out deep open warm sector storms going up. It’s just I don’t think anyone foresaw the warm sector getting up to almost 90 degrees lol
I mean, the HRRR did. It's been on point this year.
 
It’s not exact science, the meso analysis page has a very helpful LCL plot, but I’m mainly looking at the Temp-Dew Spreads. The rule of thumb is anything below 20, anything above that and you have LCL issues. My own personal rule of thumb is anything over 17 or 18 is too large of a spread
I consider anything within 10 to be the most ideal.
 
I mean I've used the HRRR pretty much for each outbreak we've had and it's been spot on. NAM and 3km NAM have been awful though.
 
I mean I've used the HRRR pretty much for each outbreak we've had and it's been spot on. NAM and 3km NAM have been awful though.
What do you mean the model that turns everything into a line of rain showers has been performing poorly? :oops:
 
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