Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[TornadoFan]

Jackson storm is looking good.

 

[ColdFront]

I do think Broyles was onto something and successfully snuffed out deep open warm sector storms going up. It’s just I don’t think anyone thought the warm sector would get up to almost 90 degrees lol

 

[snostorm21]

Jackson cell developing a hook now.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Just the fact that the temperatures and dewpoints are about 20 degrees apart.

Just anecdotally, about 10-12 degree spreads, maybe 15 max seems ideal to get tornadoes that you can actually see. IIRC that's what we had on days like 3/31/23 and 4/26/24. Less than 10 degrees and you start getting grungy, ground-scraping cloud bases.

 

[MMWX]

I do think Broyles was onto something and successfully snuffed out deep open warm sector storms going up. It’s just I don’t think anyone foresaw the warm sector getting up to almost 90 degrees lol

I mean, the HRRR did. It's been on point this year.

 

[Kds86z]

I do think Broyles was onto something and successfully snuffed out deep open warm sector storms going up. It’s just I don’t think anyone thought the warm sector would get up to almost 90 degrees lol

He deserves the prop I suppose..

 

[ColdFront]

I mean, the HRRR did. It's been on point this year.

It has been remarkable this year.

 

[Clancy]

I mean, the HRRR did. It's been on point this year.

All of us to HRRR.

 

[Kds86z]

I still feel something bad may go down… even if isolated.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

It’s not exact science, the meso analysis page has a very helpful LCL plot, but I’m mainly looking at the Temp-Dew Spreads. The rule of thumb is anything below 20, anything above that and you have LCL issues. My own personal rule of thumb is anything over 17 or 18 is too large of a spread

I consider anything within 10 to be the most ideal.

 

[keithGA]

Jackson cell developing a hook now.

I really hope that thing doesn't affect Clarkesville. Have a friend there whose house took a good bit of damage from the 2023 EF3 and she has severe storm anxiety from it.

 

[TornadoFan]

Dewpoint in Jackson, TN now up to 66 degrees with a temperature of 80.

 

[ColdFront]

Dewpoint in Jackson, TN now up to 66 degrees with a temperature of 80.

That’s a good spread. Will see if it goes anywhere

 

[Clancy]

Rotation increasing on that Jackson storm.

 

[JPWX]

I mean I've used the HRRR pretty much for each outbreak we've had and it's been spot on. NAM and 3km NAM have been awful though.

 

[Clancy]

I mean I've used the HRRR pretty much for each outbreak we've had and it's been spot on. NAM and 3km NAM have been awful though.

What do you mean the model that turns everything into a line of rain showers has been performing poorly?

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Dewpoint in Jackson, TN now up to 66 degrees with a temperature of 80.

The temperature is 70.0°F and the dewpoint is 67.0°F in Jackson, TN.

 

[Clancy]

Some SLC going on here maybe? Not sure. TOR still valid for 6 minutes.

Edit: New warning just issued.

 

[ColdFront]

The temperature is 70.0°F and the dewpoint is 67.0°F in Jackson, TN.

Brother if it’s 70 degrees something is wrong

 

[OHWX97]

That's a pretty mean looking cell southwest of Star City, Arkansas.