Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[DanLarsen34]

I wouldn’t be so confident that this activity in the high risk area is going to underperform. While they haven’t gotten their act together yet, we’ve got some real discrete cells south of Memphis. Cell mergers may ramp up the northern cells as well.

 

[ColdFront]

The one near Ripley suffered a destructive merger.

Yeah these things are struggling pretty bad.

There’s still plenty of time on today’s threat, but on high risk days you usually just don’t see cells struggle like this and for this long.

This reminds me of the May 6 high risk last year. There’s just something off with these cells. So we will see

 

[Clancy]

Yeah these things are struggling pretty bad.

There’s still plenty of time on today’s threat, but on high risk days you usually just don’t see cells struggle like this and for this long.

This reminds me of the May 6 high risk last year. There’s just something off with these cells. So we will see

This continues to be a very weird day.

 

[buckeye05]

I wouldn’t be so confident that this activity in the high risk area is going to underperform. While they haven’t gotten their act together yet, we’ve got some real discrete cells south of Memphis. Cell mergers may ramp up the northern cells as well.

Literally none of that negates the LCL/temperature issue that was mentioned.

 

[ColdFront]

This continues to be a very weird day.

This is sarcasm, but either Broyles looks like a tornado savant by the end of the night, or his key card may not work in the morning

 

[Maxis_s]

I'd pay close attention to this cell. It's in a pretty favorable environment right now. (VTP exceeding 10)

 

[cg9450]

This is sarcasm, but either Broyles looks like a tornado savant by the end of the night, or his key card may not work in the morning

por que no los dos?

 

[TornadoFan]

Rotation coming together south of Holly Springs, MS

 

[snostorm21]

Cells west of Little Rock also look interesting. The supercells in TN seem to be struggling to clear their inflow, that may change going forward.

 

[Clancy]

View attachment 38521
I'd pay close attention to this cell. It's in a pretty favorable environment right now. (VTP exceeding 10)

It has, interestingly, had some of the better structure and rotation in this area thus far; who knows if that will account for our LCL issues. My SRV has also been acting up on KNQA today, but I can't tell if that's the radar or my 2 brain cells actively frying causing that issue.

 

[ColdFront]

Temps are slowly starting to come down, but still very high LCLs

 

[MMWX]

Temps are slowly starting to come down, but still very high LCLs

View attachment 38525

Might be a dumb question, but how can you determine the LCL height based off of a station plot?

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Yeah these things are struggling pretty bad.

There’s still plenty of time on today’s threat, but on high risk days you usually just don’t see cells struggle like this and for this long.

This reminds me of the May 6 high risk last year. There’s just something off with these cells. So we will see

The Jackson, TN cell will be interesting to watch. It has a good meso and will have a shower merge with it soon as it moves into slightly lower LCLs. Also, the two NW MS cells are going to be more discrete and moving into a modified environment from the previous convection. T/Td spreads are ideal.

 

[Tennie]

Might be a dumb question, but how can you determine the LCL height based off of a station plot?

Temperature/dewpoint spread can act as a proxy for estimating surface-based air parcel LCLs: The lower the spread, the lower the LCL (and vice-versa).

 

[ColdFront]

Might be a dumb question, but how can you determine the LCL height based off of a station plot?

It’s not exact science, the meso analysis page has a very helpful LCL plot, but I’m mainly looking at the Temp-Dew Spreads. The rule of thumb is anything below 20, anything above that and you have LCL issues. My own personal rule of thumb is anything over 17 or 18 is too large of a spread

 

[Clancy]

Temps are slowly starting to come down, but still very high LCLs

View attachment 38525

While it is not, ad litteram, the same as instability, I feel like this is a good example of more heat =/= better fuel and riper environment. I've seen discussions in other places about thermodynamics where the sentiment basically boiled down to "hotter = more instability = good," but today has been an example where this is most certainly not the case.

 

[Kds86z]

While it is not, ad litteram, the same as instability, I feel like this is a good example of more heat =/= better fuel and riper environment. I've seen discussions in other places about thermodynamics where the sentiment basically boiled down to "hotter = more instability = good," but today has been an example where this is most certainly not the case.

Yeah a bit to hot today..

 

[ColdFront]

While it is not, ad litteram, the same as instability, I feel like this is a good example of more heat =/= better fuel and riper environment. I've seen discussions in other places about thermodynamics where the sentiment basically boiled down to "hotter = more instability = good," but today has been an example where this is most certainly not the case.

Yep, exactly and it’s why we don’t have tornadic storms occur in a lot of places in the late summer. 95 degree surface temps would require dews to get up to 75 lol

 

[Clancy]

Also a few big hail reports east of Tupelo, one of them baseball sized!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Might be a dumb question, but how can you determine the LCL height based off of a station plot?

Just the fact that the temperatures and dewpoints are about 20 degrees apart.