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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

atrainguy said:
If you click on it, it'll immediately download on your computer and you can see it. At least that's how it is for me.
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I got it pulled up that way. And yeah, that sounding looks nasty indeed.
 
Muwx said:
Really surprised at how conservative the SPC is being with this event.
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They're not being conservative though, look at the wording. There very well may be only 4 supercells across the whole risk area. It's not like this is forecasted to be a huge outbreak in terms of numerous cells. Like they say, widely scattered intense supercells, with a strong tornado or two, and that threat is still conditional. IMO no reason to upgrade.
 
Pals and buddies, work is kicking my hind quarters today so I haven't been able to really dive into the details for tonight. Can someone just give me a headline on this NTX/COK threat? Do we think we could see any fireworks as far south as the DFW metroplex?
 
18z HRRR seems to be an uptick in potential for some parts of the northern mode (N IL, S WI), allowing for some CI in the afternoon after the morning convection clears, and putting a modest UH track over southern Milwaukee.
 
I think it's fine keeping it ENH. This isn't supposed to be a widespread tornado event, just that a few supercells could develop and produce tornadoes. Besides, that 10% hatched means that some tornadoes could be EF2+, not that it's likely. I think if it was likely, then they would go Moderate.
 
SmokeEater said:
They're not being conservative though, look at the wording. There very well may be only 4 supercells across the whole risk area. It's not like this is forecasted to be a huge outbreak in terms of numerous cells. Like they say, widely scattered intense supercells, with a strong tornado or two, and that threat is still conditional. IMO no reason to upgrade.
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I would be pretty surprised if we only get one or two strong tornadoes at this point, but I guess we will see.
 
I think a moderate risk could have been justified given that we’ve seen similar conditional set-ups get that before, but I am more surprised that the newest Day 1 doesn’t use stronger language for the tornadoes that COULD happen today.

There’s certainly potential for any tornado in this event to be intense (EF3+)
 
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