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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

US_Highway15 said:
Trey's not perfect, but he lost some brownie points from me for saying that on 3/19, the tornado threat was maximized around the IA/IL border. Again, we're not perfect, but it was a bold prediction. Still love his synopsis videos.
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He has t been that good lately be honest …. No one perfect though
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
Waaaaaaaaaaaay too early for that kind of certainty. One run of run model isn't something to make these kind of declarative statements about.
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To add on, none of these computer models will be completely exactly 100% correct in where the storms will fire or how intense they will be. Just gives a general vincinity where they might, and how intense they might get.
 
Tanner said:
I disagree. Models show storms initiating early enough in the day to be within that window of prime real estate of limited cap and adequate thermos. I think shear will increase as the storms already have rooted as surface based. I would be less concerned if the initiation were closer to sunset and after, as the cap building in would possibly shorten the storms times to mature and root themselves. But even then, all it takes is one of the cells to root.
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Yeah, fair enough.

It honestly could go either way, and as you say only takes one storm to become properly surface based and fight off the low level inhibition, and utilize the shear. I think we can all agree Oklahomans should be on alert either way.
 
klouzek7079 said:
If the cap manages to hold and nothing happens today, would that intensify the storms that initiate tomorrow? Or does this setup not affect tomorrow at all?
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Someone can tell me if I'm wrong, but I believe the cap is in question specifically for OK. I don't think there's as big of a question for it in Kansas and northward. The convection that develops after midnight and moves east will determine for Northern IL/IN/southern Michigan if anything big happens tomorrow around there.
 
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