ONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...187...
VALID 062014Z - 062215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 186, 187 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...EVOLVING SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH 5-7 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIVE INTENSIFICATION OF INITIALLY WIDELY
SCATTERED DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AS A
SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHES PEAK AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION (INCLUDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG)
AND INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM BELOW, AS DEPICTED IN
SOUNDINGS FROM JACKSON MS. AS SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FURTHER SUPPRESSION
OF INHIBITION APPEARS PROBABLE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCREASING
NUMBER OF INTENSIFYING STORMS.
LATEST RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO INDICATE NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION
OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (TO 40-50+ KT)
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z. AS THIS OCCURS, ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY PROMOTE INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL IN
EVOLVING SUPERCELLS. EVEN WITH ONLY SOME FURTHER ENLARGEMENT OF
MODEST CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS NOW IN THE MID 70S ARE ENHANCING NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY AND
POTENTIAL UPWARD ACCELERATIONS, WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR
A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR.. 05/06/2026
I
