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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat

DanLarsen34 said:
Funny you brought that up because I was going to say that you literally never know for sure with Dixie events like this. Dixie alley can have a knack for sneaking up on you and producing an intense to violent tornado out of an environment like we might see later. Even on days where the lack of a cap is a major factor with marginal lapse rates and an over saturated profile, we can often see one storm go briefly nuts.
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This is what I try to tell people! Dixie Alley does what it wants and CAN do more with LESS.... at the last minute.... if it wants to... maybe LOL!!!!!. You never REALLY know what is going to happen until it does.

My NWSSPC/NWStornado X account notifications are turned on for MDs, outlooks, and warnings.
 
Instability moving eastward rapidly, ahead of modelling depictions. One thing I find interesting is instability sticking around despite sequential waves of storms, prior to the front sweeping everything out. There's a good chance that ongoing convection across the vicinity of the Tennessee River will play a role in setting up some boundaries for later convective initiation.
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UncleJuJu98 said:
The latest hrrr is a jaw dropper for supercells in south Mississippi and south Alabama.

I think today will be a long duration tornado event for southern Alabama.
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14+ hours. That's... something. (would have attached picture of 16Z HRRR at 22Z to 10Z tomorrow) and it's not THAT far south, Birmingham-Montgomery corridor.
 
Lots of eyes will probably be on these cells over the next few hours, but in these kinds of scenarios, they often struggle in the afternoon hours due to forcing and kinematic issues. Anything that develops in this area later today, when the LLJ begins to intensify, however, would definitely mean trouble.
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Believe the HRRR or RRFS (and to some extent the 3km NAM) is still handling the northern portion of the risk zone very poorly.
 
JPWX said:
Believe the HRRR or RRFS (and to some extent the 3km NAM) is still handling the northern portion of the risk zone very poorly.
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A lot of the models seem to be having trouble today - I noticed the RAP was way off with instability a few hours ago. CAMs generally having a hard time this year.
 
Clancy said:
Lots of eyes will probably be on these cells over the next few hours, but in these kinds of scenarios, they often struggle in the afternoon hours due to forcing and kinematic issues. Anything that develops in this area later today, when the LLJ begins to intensify, however, would definitely mean trouble.
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Man that radar makes those storms look way worse. I was in it and a special weather statement was not needed.

For the first time all the way from east Alabama, I saw sun briefly 10 miles north of Laurel.
 
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