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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat
- Thread starter Justin Hindman
- Start date
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- #162
From the looks of Radarscope, it seems many central Alabama schools are dismissing early as well. Wallace State College in Hanceville is also dismissing early.
Kds86z
Member
Trey said not as saturated as previous models showed.
KevinH
Member
WHY DOES THIS ALWAYS SEEM TO HAPPEN RIGHT BEFORE AN EVENT?!?!
(Sorry, I am currently playing catch up lol)
Kds86z
Member
where ya been Dixie Kev.. lol.
Geno
Member
Sun keeps trying to peek out in Tuscaloosa. 79f
No moderate. Just adjusting or the enchanced
KevinH
Member
KevinH
Member
bckhd2
Member
They expanded the 5% CIG1 tornado risk to include the Atlanta metro area. I'm glad they did that.
KevinH
Member
Not to sound selfish, but I typically don't come out of hibernation on here unless and until AL/GA could be affected. SO far, I am juuuuuust on the border of slight/marginal in W C GA, but I am still watching things, and expect to be put under some kind of WW for this event.where ya been Dixie Kev.. lol.
Email notifications for this forum are my best friend lol
Just stepped out of the office to get lunch, it is very warm and humid
Gail
Member
They shifted the enhanced a bit more south. I was in it, but now, I’m back in the slight. Not that it matters because we’re still in the hatched brown area for tornadoes. Hail threat also shifted - we were solidly in the hatched area but aren’t now.
- Thread starter
- #175
Justin Hindman
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- Gardendale Alabama
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Natchez to clanton, somewhere between there I believe will have a decent tornado or 2 today.
Sun is trying to come out here in Smithville. Currently at 77 degrees
KevinH
Member
MD 653: Intensifying storms with increasing risk for severe weather, including tornadoes,
by 20-22, if not perhaps earlier.
Mesoscale Discussion 0653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Louisiana...central and southern Mississippi...adjacent western Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061657Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms initiating over the next few hours may begin to more substantively intensify and organize by 3-5 PM CDT, if not perhaps a bit earlier. A tornado watch likely will be needed at some point, though timing remains a bit uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is contributing to a deepening moist boundary across much of Louisiana through southern and central Mississippi, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. Surface dew points across this region are generally in the lower to mid 70s F, with breaks in cloud cover beginning to contribute to destabilization which may become characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon.
Erosion of inhibition from below has been accompanied by the development of scattered showers, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms likely to continue to gradually initiate over the next few hours. Particularly toward 20-21Z, when Rapid Refresh suggests that a low amplitude wave migrating through the crest of broader ridging aloft may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls, more substantive intensification appears increasingly probable. This is likely to include organizing supercells in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
Although enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may remain modest even with some strengthening of southwesterly flow around 850 mb later this afternoon, profiles may still become conducive to the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, given the saturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with high moisture content. Otherwise, the more discrete stronger cells probably will be accompanied by a risk for large, potentially damaging hail. The southward advancing, and undercutting, surface cold front to the north seems likely to provide the northern limit to this threat, with the stronger mid-level ridging/capping providing the southern limit near and inland of coastal areas.
..Kerr/Smith.. 05/06/2026
by 20-22, if not perhaps earlier.
Mesoscale Discussion 0653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Louisiana...central and southern Mississippi...adjacent western Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061657Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms initiating over the next few hours may begin to more substantively intensify and organize by 3-5 PM CDT, if not perhaps a bit earlier. A tornado watch likely will be needed at some point, though timing remains a bit uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is contributing to a deepening moist boundary across much of Louisiana through southern and central Mississippi, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. Surface dew points across this region are generally in the lower to mid 70s F, with breaks in cloud cover beginning to contribute to destabilization which may become characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon.
Erosion of inhibition from below has been accompanied by the development of scattered showers, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms likely to continue to gradually initiate over the next few hours. Particularly toward 20-21Z, when Rapid Refresh suggests that a low amplitude wave migrating through the crest of broader ridging aloft may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls, more substantive intensification appears increasingly probable. This is likely to include organizing supercells in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
Although enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may remain modest even with some strengthening of southwesterly flow around 850 mb later this afternoon, profiles may still become conducive to the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, given the saturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with high moisture content. Otherwise, the more discrete stronger cells probably will be accompanied by a risk for large, potentially damaging hail. The southward advancing, and undercutting, surface cold front to the north seems likely to provide the northern limit to this threat, with the stronger mid-level ridging/capping providing the southern limit near and inland of coastal areas.
..Kerr/Smith.. 05/06/2026
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 653
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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