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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

So with the potential for a major and big typhoon on the horizon next week, here's some interesting facts:

Last July category 5 typhoon was in 2018.
Last sub-900mb category 5 typhoon in July occurred in 2005.
 
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is now predicting Tropical Storm Bavi to intensify into a Category 5 super typhoon on the US scale by Sunday, July 5, 2026, due to a possible rapid intensification (RI) phase that may begin within the next 24 hours. They expect the system to peak at least 140 knots (~260 km/h) within the five-day forecast period, and during its passage in the Mariana Islands.
 

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Kds86z said:
We got Bavi now.

JUST IN: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is now predicting Tropical Storm #Bavi to intensify into a Category 5 super typhoon on the US scale by Sunday, July 5, 2026, due to a possible rapid intensification (RI) phase that may begin within the next 24 hours.

They expect the system to peak at least 140 knots (~260 km/h) within the five-day forecast period, and during its passage in the Mariana Islands. For the official advisories, kindly check @NWSGuam.
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Honestly probably closer to typhoon now.
 
Some of the Euro Ensemble members from yesterday's 12z has near or at record low pressure with this and still do with today's 00z run. Might give Tip a run for it's money. If it was the GFS or Canadian showing it, I would have already thrown it out. However, since it's the Euro, it warrants more attention.

I wish we didn't just fully rely on satellite for pressure readings for West Pacific storms now.
 
JPWX said:
Some of the Euro Ensemble members from yesterday's 12z has near or at record low pressure with this and still do with today's 00z run. Might give Tip a run for it's money. If it was the GFS or Canadian showing it, I would have already thrown it out. However, since it's the Euro, it warrants more attention.

I wish we didn't just fully rely on satellite for pressure readings for West Pacific storms now.
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I’d be shocked if it ended up getting sub-880, but with all the factors lining up the way they are (WPAC in a pristine environment, July, model agreement), I think sub 900 is likely here.

Is it unreasonable of me to be a little skeptical of a lot of those storms’ intensities and pressures from 1960-1980 in the WPAC?
 
slenker said:
I’d be shocked if it ended up getting sub-880, but with all the factors lining up the way they are (WPAC in a pristine environment, July, model agreement), I think sub 900 is likely here.

Is it unreasonable of me to be a little skeptical of a lot of those storms’ intensities and pressures from 1960-1980 in the WPAC?
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Not at all. Only reason we know of Tip's 870mb record pressure is because recon flew thru it multiple times (60 times). I'm quite sure though that pressure has been beaten since then, but we'll never officially know by like Patricia, Haiyan, etc. Granted, you had recon in Patricia, but they had to leave it before they could get a better reading.
 
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