That’s very interesting. One observation to note is that the region these invests right now are going to be in had these three cyclones in recent history: Patricia 2015, Otis 2023, and John 2024. The background environment is not nearly as supportive there right now as it was for those cyclones (Otis had pretty moderate shear despite the extraordinary RI episode though) but any storm that forms in that region in Sept-Oct is really going to catch my eye, even if the maximum forecasted intensity is C1 in the initial forecasts. Having those analogs in recent history for tropical cyclones is problematic, to say the least.
The current invests are definitely not going to reach those levels. They’re now at 80% and 70% for 5-day odds, respectively.
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