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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

Latest observation from Saipan International Airport (as of 10:54am) has pressure down to 980.5mb
 
While Super Typhoon Sinlaku has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on the northern Western Pacific, the tropics have gone quiet, as is the norm typically during April. Activity should start to pick up slowly starting in May.
 
The tropics remain quiet for now, but there are signals to watch for in the Western Pacific and as we approach the start of the Pacific Hurricane Season, the Eastern Pacific as well.

The South Indian Ocean bears watching for a possible WWB to possibly spawn a low pressure area within the first 10 or so days of this month.

The Northern Hemisphere continues to wake up as we now get into May, and Atlantic activity will likely start showing up on the models within the next several weeks as we approach the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
 
Tropical Depression 05W formed in the WPAC yesterday, and overnight Eastern Standard Time it was designated as Tropical Storm Hagupit by JMA.

This is the fifth named storm of the season in the WPAC, well ahead of 2023 (had 1 NS to this point, which had formed on April 19 and dissipated on April 25), 2024 (didn’t have an NS yet, would get its first NS on May 25) and last year (didn’t get it’s first NS until a record fifth latest start of June 12)
 
It’s still mostly quiet in the tropics, but the WPAC does bear watching for further activity down the line if models are to be believed.
 
TS Amanda in the Eastern Pacific is now going strong, and we have 2 more areas of interest just off the coast. The northern one has 30% odds in 5 days and the southern one has 50% odds in 5 days (I expect that number to go up; the area it may form in is notorious for rapid intensification, although it still is only June). I think this Eastern Pacific season is going to be a very intense one due to the strong El Nino we will be transitioning into, it's a good thing these storms don't have much in the way of land interaction the vast majority of the time.
 
slenker said:
TS Amanda in the Eastern Pacific is now going strong, and we have 2 more areas of interest just off the coast. The northern one has 30% odds in 5 days and the southern one has 50% odds in 5 days (I expect that number to go up; the area it may form in is notorious for rapid intensification, although it still is only June). I think this Eastern Pacific season is going to be a very intense one due to the strong El Nino we will be transitioning into, it's a good thing these storms don't have much in the way of land interaction the vast majority of the time.
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Considering the fact that the last El Niño year was in 2023 with a hyperactive EPAC that had 17 NS, 10 HU, 8 MH, and 165 ACE, I definitely do think this season has the potential to be historic. Reason why I say this is because despite the above average activity in 2023, one of the limiting factors that year was a -PMM off the coast of California. Basically what a -PMM is a tongue of cooler waters off the coast of California and this prevented the 2023 season from being even more active by limiting how far north the storms would get and their intensity. However, this year, the PMM appears to be neutral to above average which will help storms travel further north and retain their intensity longer. This combined with the fact that we have a growing El Niño this year, I do think it has the potential to be even more active than 2023.
 
SouthFLwx said:
Considering the fact that the last El Niño year was in 2023 with a hyperactive EPAC that had 17 NS, 10 HU, 8 MH, and 165 ACE, I definitely do think this season has the potential to be historic. Reason why I say this is because despite the above average activity in 2023, one of the limiting factors that year was a -PMM off the coast of California. Basically what a -PMM is a tongue of cooler waters off the coast of California and this prevented the 2023 season from being even more active by limiting how far north the storms would get and their intensity. However, this year, the PMM appears to be neutral to above average which will help storms travel further north and retain their intensity longer. This combined with the fact that we have a growing El Niño this year, I do think it has the potential to be even more active than 2023.
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That’s very interesting. One observation to note is that the region these invests right now are going to be in had these three cyclones in recent history: Patricia 2015, Otis 2023, and John 2024. The background environment is not nearly as supportive there right now as it was for those cyclones (Otis had pretty moderate shear despite the extraordinary RI episode though) but any storm that forms in that region in Sept-Oct is really going to catch my eye, even if the maximum forecasted intensity is C1 in the initial forecasts. Having those analogs in recent history for tropical cyclones is problematic, to say the least.

The current invests are definitely not going to reach those levels. They’re now at 80% and 70% for 5-day odds, respectively.

IMG_4668.jpeg
 
Gulf is next in line
 
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