Kds86z
Member
Oh yeah. I saw that too. A bit historic June..
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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
SouthFLwx
Member
And there is alot more activity coming.
Kds86z
Member
SouthFLwx
Member
I think the PDO has more of an influence on the WPAC than the PMM but yes, we will likely have an above average season this year
So with the potential for a major and big typhoon on the horizon next week, here's some interesting facts:
Last July category 5 typhoon was in 2018.
Last sub-900mb category 5 typhoon in July occurred in 2005.
Last July category 5 typhoon was in 2018.
Last sub-900mb category 5 typhoon in July occurred in 2005.
Kds86z
Member
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is now predicting Tropical Storm Bavi to intensify into a Category 5 super typhoon on the US scale by Sunday, July 5, 2026, due to a possible rapid intensification (RI) phase that may begin within the next 24 hours. They expect the system to peak at least 140 knots (~260 km/h) within the five-day forecast period, and during its passage in the Mariana Islands.
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SouthFLwx
Member
Honestly probably closer to typhoon now.
Kds86z
Member
Yeah, going to be a bad one.
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Some of the Euro Ensemble members from yesterday's 12z has near or at record low pressure with this and still do with today's 00z run. Might give Tip a run for it's money. If it was the GFS or Canadian showing it, I would have already thrown it out. However, since it's the Euro, it warrants more attention.
I wish we didn't just fully rely on satellite for pressure readings for West Pacific storms now.
I wish we didn't just fully rely on satellite for pressure readings for West Pacific storms now.
slenker
Member
I’d be shocked if it ended up getting sub-880, but with all the factors lining up the way they are (WPAC in a pristine environment, July, model agreement), I think sub 900 is likely here.
Is it unreasonable of me to be a little skeptical of a lot of those storms’ intensities and pressures from 1960-1980 in the WPAC?
Not at all. Only reason we know of Tip's 870mb record pressure is because recon flew thru it multiple times (60 times). I'm quite sure though that pressure has been beaten since then, but we'll never officially know by like Patricia, Haiyan, etc. Granted, you had recon in Patricia, but they had to leave it before they could get a better reading.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
yeah when a cane is too strong noaa just says, "peace" and avoids it which makes sense I'd rather have decent data than perfect data for 2s then disaster
Right! And see there in lies the case for unmanned drones being used
slenker
Member
Bavi really looks like it wants to go crazy.
Sorry if this attachment is large, I’m on mobile right now and it’s hard to tell if this is too big or not.
SouthFLwx
Member
Yeah, it is about to undergo a period of explosive intensification. It has that classic HE Cat 1-LE Cat 2 look to it.
Kds86z
Member
“The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is now forecasting Typhoon Bavi to peak at 150 kt (~270 km/h) within the next 48 hours as it tracks toward the Mariana Islands. The last storm of comparable intensity to directly impact the area was TY Hagibis (2019), which reached 160 kt (~295 km/h), and could become the first for the month of July in recorded history.”
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JTWC peak intensity of 170mph might be a bit conservative. The HAFS-A has lowest pressure of 900mb while 12z Euro Ensemble members show 892mb with 18z Euro Members going into the tank with pressure drop.
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Kds86z
Member
SouthFLwx
Member
Much stronger now, 125 kt Cat 4.
Kds86z
Member
Fast…. !
