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2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Next time I say its been lame/boring someone please kick my a██ and/or find a way utilise my curse for good instead of evil.

Looks like that one's going east... maybe if the UK/spain/france is lucky it'll bring them some much needed rain.
 
Up to 60% odds for our most interesting wave in the central Atlantic right now, I think this one's going to be Cristobal. As of right now I expect a fish storm, perhaps peaking at C1-2 intensity. I wouldn't be surprised to see a higher intensity since it's got a lot of room over very warm water.
 
akt1985 said:
Too early to say, but it would not surprise me if no storms in the Atlantic get retired after the 2026 season is over.
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Would be the first time since 2023 if that happened
 
Definitely looking pretty interesting-looking at the moment. Will have to wait for more organization to gain confidence, but modelling currently progs it moving through the Caribbean Sea. Could pose a threat to the US Gulf Coast or eastern Mexico.
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KevinH said:
We are almost at the end of August and NO ONE has anything to say over the last 10 days? lol

I thought someone would have posted an updated forecast or something by now. Is it really expected to be that quiet this year in the Atlantic?
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Forecasts from major offices are calling for a below normal season at best and a very below normal season at worst. Outside of two waves being at medium odds at the moment, this season looks like it will continue to be very dead. This isn’t unexpected at all, strong El Niños tend to do this. I’m not surprised this thread has gone cold, and I’m definitely more welcoming of a dead Atlantic season with how awful the past couple years have been outside of 2023.
 
slenker said:
Forecasts from major offices are calling for a below normal season at best and a very below normal season at worst. Outside of two waves being at medium odds at the moment, this season looks like it will continue to be very dead. This isn’t unexpected at all, strong El Niños tend to do this. I’m not surprised this thread has gone cold, and I’m definitely more welcoming of a dead Atlantic season with how awful the past couple years have been outside of 2023.
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That is a good point. I am still sleeping with one eye open though LOL
 
KevinH said:
That is a good point. I am still sleeping with one eye open though LOL
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With how warm the Atlantic is, any system/wave that manages to find itself in an unsheared and moist environment, even if it isn't very long, is going to be capable of rapid intensification. It's just not nearly as likely as it would normally be, since shear over the Caribbean this year will be unrelenting for the most part. It's still worth keeping an eye on for sure, though.
 
slenker said:
With how warm the Atlantic is, any system/wave that manages to find itself in an unsheared and moist environment, even if it isn't very long, is going to be capable of rapid intensification. It's just not nearly as likely as it would normally be, since shear over the Caribbean this year will be unrelenting for the most part. It's still worth keeping an eye on for sure, though.
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Now wait a minute....

The Atlantic is WARM? I thought El Niño caused the Atlantic to cool down and the Pacific to warm up?!
 
KevinH said:
Now wait a minute....

The Atlantic is WARM? I thought El Niño caused the Atlantic to cool down and the Pacific to warm up?!
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The Atlantic is warmer than average based on SST data from the past couple decades, which isn't surprising in the slightest anymore. IIRC the ENSO phase in the Pacific doesn't directly affect anything about SST's in the Atlantic, so no, the warmth there isn't from El Nino. The reason why activity is suppressed in the Atlantic from El Nino phases is because wind shear increases dramatically over the basin, resulting in storms not being able to develop or intensify nearly as easily. It's not impossible for us to get a powerful hurricane, it's just less likely because of the shear being so much stronger.
 
Allow me to break the ice here.

El Nino does lead to cooling in the Atlantic, but it's generally over a very isolated zone rather than the entire basin. That being said, the Atlantic is still supportive for tropical systems/hurricanes. It's just that the wind shear/dry air keeps development at bay for the most part which El Nino increases the wind shear activity. With that being said, you can still have tropical development occur and there's been many a impactful tropical systems that have occurred during Nino years. Andrew, Matthew, and Camille are one of those examples.

Here's a what is link about ENSO

 
JPWX said:
El Nino does lead to cooling in the Atlantic, but it's generally over a very isolated zone rather than the entire basin. That being said, the Atlantic is still supportive for tropical systems/hurricanes. It's just that the wind shear/dry air keeps development at bay for the most part which El Nino increases the wind shear activity. With that being said, you can still have tropical development occur and there's been many a impactful tropical systems that have occurred during Nino years. Andrew, Matthew, and Camille are one of those examples.
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Very interesting. Was not aware of this.
 
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