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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
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- #1,162
Tropical Depression 32W has taken a dip southwards as it continues to organize its convection and banding. The further south a potential new center forms, the greater the chance for a higher intensity, due to very warm sea surface temperatures, high oceanic heat content, light wind shear and favorable convergence in the atmosphere.
The next international name in the Western Pacific is Fung-wong and the next Philippine name is Uwan, both of these names will likely be used in the coming days.
The next international name in the Western Pacific is Fung-wong and the next Philippine name is Uwan, both of these names will likely be used in the coming days.
- Thread starter
- #1,163
Tropical Depression 32W is still a bit broad, and it will take some time to get organized and to form a solidified core, but once it does, it will likely RI and become a major typhoon.
Typhoon Kalmaegi briefly reached Category 2 on the SSHWS before moving though the Philippines, and it weakened to a Category 1 before regaining Category 2 again this morning in the South China Sea. It could become a major typhoon briefly despite the current JTWC advisory not expecting a major typhoon peak (current forecast has 95 kts as the peak)
Typhoon Kalmaegi briefly reached Category 2 on the SSHWS before moving though the Philippines, and it weakened to a Category 1 before regaining Category 2 again this morning in the South China Sea. It could become a major typhoon briefly despite the current JTWC advisory not expecting a major typhoon peak (current forecast has 95 kts as the peak)
- Thread starter
- #1,164
Tropical Depression 32W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fung-Wong by JMA.
| WTPQ51 RJTD 051800 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 2526 FUNG-WONG (2526) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 051800UTC 10.2N 142.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 061800UTC 11.6N 139.9E 50NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT GUST 065KT 48HF 071800UTC 13.4N 135.8E 85NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 72HF 081800UTC 14.9N 129.6E 120NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT GUST 105KT 96HF 091800UTC 17.0N 123.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT GUST 130KT 120HF 101800UTC 18.0N 120.1E 180NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT GUST 105KT = |
- Thread starter
- #1,165
- Thread starter
- #1,166
- Thread starter
- #1,167
Typhoon Kalmaegi (ex-Tino) intensified to 110 kts (125 mph), just shy of C4 status on the SSHWS. It has made landfall in Vietnam and is forecast to quickly weaken overland.
Fung-Wong has intensified into a TS by the JTWC as well now, and the forecast cone has shifted a bit southward.
Fung-Wong has intensified into a TS by the JTWC as well now, and the forecast cone has shifted a bit southward.
- Thread starter
- #1,168
Correction:
It actually reached 115 kts (130 mph) and became a Category 4 on the SSHWS.
- Thread starter
- #1,169
lol, welcome to the future!
It says December 19th, 2025 but it’s not even December yet. It’s November 7th, 2025.
This is a real invest by the way, it’s supposed to be Invest 96S over near Jakarta, which has the potential to become the first Australian Region tropical cyclone of the 2025-26 season, with some sort of support across the models for the timeframe November 14 to November 18-19 for the possibility of it forming into a TC.
It says December 19th, 2025 but it’s not even December yet. It’s November 7th, 2025.
This is a real invest by the way, it’s supposed to be Invest 96S over near Jakarta, which has the potential to become the first Australian Region tropical cyclone of the 2025-26 season, with some sort of support across the models for the timeframe November 14 to November 18-19 for the possibility of it forming into a TC.
- Thread starter
- #1,170
Typhoon Fung-wong (Typhoon Uwan in the Philippines) has reached 110 kts (125 mph) and it has become the 6th major typhoon of this year’s Pacific Typhoon season and 23rd major tropical cyclone worldwide. It is possible that it reaches Category 4 SSHWS before landfall in the northern Philippines in a few days.
- Thread starter
- #1,171
Typhoon Fung-wong briefly peaked at 115 kts (130 mph) overnight U.S. time and it struck the northern Philippines, and it is now weakening over the mountains of the northern Philippines. Current intensity according to the JTWC is 100 kts (115 mph), so it is barely hanging on to major cyclone strength. It is likely to move into the South China Sea and curve up towards Taiwan, before landfalling there as a continuously weakening tropical cyclone. Its remnants will reemerge into the South China Sea afterwards.
- Thread starter
- #1,172
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- #1,173
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- #1,174
If the Atlantic does not produce any more named storms between now and December 31st (the end of the year), it would be the first time since 2015 that the named storm count came in below the long-term average (current NS average is 14 NS, 2025 has produced 13 NS to date)
The number of hurricanes in an average year is seven and 2025 has produced five, which is currently two hurricanes below the long-term average.
The number of major hurricanes in an average year is three, and here 2025 is actually above the long-term average by one, because the average here is three major hurricanes
The number of hurricanes in an average year is seven and 2025 has produced five, which is currently two hurricanes below the long-term average.
The number of major hurricanes in an average year is three, and here 2025 is actually above the long-term average by one, because the average here is three major hurricanes
- Thread starter
- #1,175
The current 1991-2020 average in the Atlantic is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes
Here is 2025’s stats compared to the long-term average
Named storms: 13 (-1)
Hurricanes: 5 (-2)
Major Hurricanes: 4 (+1)
ACE: 132.5 (+9.5)
Here is 2025’s stats compared to the long-term average
Named storms: 13 (-1)
Hurricanes: 5 (-2)
Major Hurricanes: 4 (+1)
ACE: 132.5 (+9.5)
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #1,177
Invest 97S (Tropical Low 02U) in the Australian Region has gone High Chance by JTWC and it is at a 65% high chance by BoM now too. 97S has a decent chance of becoming the first named storm in the Australian Region this season, and the next name is Fina
A track near Darwin is likely, and it is already near Darwin. The system is likely to turn south-southwest and move inland in the Northern Territory region of Australia.
A track near Darwin is likely, and it is already near Darwin. The system is likely to turn south-southwest and move inland in the Northern Territory region of Australia.
WTXS21 PGTW 171330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 129.5E TO 8.6S 133.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 129.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 131
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 170907Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH
.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181330Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 129.5E TO 8.6S 133.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 129.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 131
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 170907Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH
.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181330Z.//
NNNN
- Thread starter
- #1,178
My personal forecast for Invest 97S based off what I see on the models. Each point is 6 hours
11/18, 00Z - 45 mph
11/18, 06Z - 50 mph
11/18, 12Z - 60 mph
11/18, 18Z - 45 mph
11/19, 00Z - 60 mph
11/19, 06Z - 80 mph
Most models have a northeast track away from Australia briefly before curving back southwestwards towards Darwin later on.
- Thread starter
- #1,179
- Thread starter
- #1,180
Invest 97S has become Tropical Cyclone 05S overnight, but it hasn’t received a name yet from either Jakarta or the Bureau of Meteorology.
Tropical Cyclone 05S is the first storm to form in-season so far, after the first four storms (01S, Awo, Blossom and Chenge) all formed prior to November but after July 1st (the start of the tropical cyclone year down there)
The JTWC expects a 55 kt (65 mph) peak for 05S as of right now with the second warning.
Tropical Cyclone 05S is the first storm to form in-season so far, after the first four storms (01S, Awo, Blossom and Chenge) all formed prior to November but after July 1st (the start of the tropical cyclone year down there)
The JTWC expects a 55 kt (65 mph) peak for 05S as of right now with the second warning.
WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171321ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.0S 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.7S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.5S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.4S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.6S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.1S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.2S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.6S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 131.0E.
18NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171330).//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171321ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.0S 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.7S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.5S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 9.4S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.6S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.1S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.2S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.6S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 131.0E.
18NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171330).//
NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.0S 130.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS CONSOLIDATED SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF THE FIRST WARNING. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DARWIN RADAR REVEALS A
PERSISTENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, JUST
NORTH OF MELVILLE ISLAND, WITH WEAKER BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. AN 180450Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELEVANT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POINT
FAWCETT ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MELVILLE ISLAND, WHICH IS REPORTING
ONLY 5-10 KNOT EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS. HOWEVER, AN 180018Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE INDICATES PATCHY 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 20NM OF THE CENTER.
AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.0-2.5 (30-35
KNOTS), WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST
VALUES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PEAK TO ABOUT 55 KNOTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36. NEAR
TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO HIGH (25-
30 KNOTS) LEVELS, WHICH WILL TILT THE VORTEX SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CORE. THIS WILL
INITIATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND
STRENGTHEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM INITIALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 120. AFTER TAU 72, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE COASTAL REGION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHARP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TURNS.
THE 180000Z GEFS AND EPS RUNS ALSO REFLECT SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY. DUE TO
THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND PROXIMITY TO LAND, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH RELIABLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A
FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF PEAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS
IN THE TAU 24 TO TAU 36 PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.0S 130.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS CONSOLIDATED SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF THE FIRST WARNING. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DARWIN RADAR REVEALS A
PERSISTENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, JUST
NORTH OF MELVILLE ISLAND, WITH WEAKER BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. AN 180450Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELEVANT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POINT
FAWCETT ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MELVILLE ISLAND, WHICH IS REPORTING
ONLY 5-10 KNOT EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS. HOWEVER, AN 180018Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE INDICATES PATCHY 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 20NM OF THE CENTER.
AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.0-2.5 (30-35
KNOTS), WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST
VALUES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PEAK TO ABOUT 55 KNOTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36. NEAR
TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO HIGH (25-
30 KNOTS) LEVELS, WHICH WILL TILT THE VORTEX SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CORE. THIS WILL
INITIATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND
STRENGTHEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM INITIALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 120. AFTER TAU 72, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE COASTAL REGION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHARP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TURNS.
THE 180000Z GEFS AND EPS RUNS ALSO REFLECT SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY. DUE TO
THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND PROXIMITY TO LAND, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH RELIABLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A
FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF PEAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS
IN THE TAU 24 TO TAU 36 PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN