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- #1,141
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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #1,142
The invest is now at a high chance of development by the JTWC.
WTPN21 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 131.2E TO 15.3N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 131.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.9N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 131.2E TO 15.3N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 131.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.9N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z.//
NNNN
Attachments
- Thread starter
- #1,143
The Southern Hemisphere has done it again, with another high chance invest despite it not being November yet. It is Invest 94S.
WTXS21 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 75.9E TO 9.5S 68.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 75.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.0S 77.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171241Z
WSFM 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 171632Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25-
30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND PATCHY 35 KT WINDS
DISPLACED 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-
28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA BUT COULD PRODUCE 25-30 KT SUSTAINED WESTERLIES DURING THE
180000Z-190000Z TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181800Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 75.9E TO 9.5S 68.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 75.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.0S 77.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171241Z
WSFM 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 171632Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25-
30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND PATCHY 35 KT WINDS
DISPLACED 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-
28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA BUT COULD PRODUCE 25-30 KT SUSTAINED WESTERLIES DURING THE
180000Z-190000Z TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181800Z.//
NNNN
Last edited:
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- #1,144
The JTWC hasn’t upgraded it to a TC yet, but JMA has declared it Tropical Storm Fengshen.
| T2524(Fengshen) Issued at 2025/10/17 19:30 UTC Analysis at 10/17 18 UTC Grade TS Scale - Intensity - Center position N12°55′ (12.9°) E127°25′ (127.4°) Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt) Central pressure 1000 hPa Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt) Radius of 30-kt wind area 220 km (120 |