2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

Hey @Atlantic do you happen to know how many total advisories were issued on Freddy?

By Meteo-France or by the JTWC?

 

[JPWX]

By Meteo-France or by the JTWC?

JTWC and Meteo-France

 

[Atlantic]

JTWC and Meteo-France

I'm not certain how many advisories were issued by the JTWC total. I would guess 50+ by the JTWC.

 

[Atlantic]

I'm not certain how many advisories were issued by the JTWC total. I would guess 50+ by the JTWC.

As for Meteo-France, I have no clue.

 

[JPWX]

I'm not certain how many advisories were issued by the JTWC total. I would guess 50+ by the JTWC.

Yeah. I just searched for it and there's really no answer to that due to the multiple agencies/jurisdictions.

 

[Atlantic]

We still need to watch- *weeze laughing* (mid-typing reaction to the 06Z GFS today):


I seriously don't think this will happen, but the May 7th 06Z GFS run is spinning up a storm on either side of Central America.

 

[Atlantic]

The GFS is back to spinning up a storm in the Philippine Sea again. It brushes the central east coast of the Philippines before recurving out to sea according to the GFS. I don't know about this system yet due to the recent examples of 99W and 90W having good support and then days later that support flopped hard.

 

[Atlantic]

Here is the total stats as of May 7th worldwide for tropical cyclones since 2022:
(includes Tropical Depressions)

2022 - 28\28\12\6
2023 - 14\14\10\6
2024 - 19\19\11\4
2025 as of now - 24\24\14\9

 

[Atlantic]

GFS being GFS, it threw up a 941 mb monster in the southwest Caribbean (We all know it won't be that strong, right? RIGHT? *Beryl enters the June chat*):

 

[Atlantic]

I'm sure that everyone thought that the southern hemisphere season was over, but nope; not yet. The JTWC labeled Invest 93P earlier and the BoM labeled 93P as Tropical Low 33U.

 

[Atlantic]

Should Invest 93P (Tropical Low 33U) form, it would make the 2024-25 season the third consecutive season in a row to have formed a storm after April 30th. It would also make this season the third consecutive season in a row to have produced a TC before November 1st and after April 30th.

The JTWC now has 93P at medium chance of formation within the next 24-48 hours.

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 93P appears to be trying to develop more centralized convection now. It has a good circulation, it just needs the convection as well. 93P has a short period of time to from within the next few days before shear destroys it.

 

[Atlantic]

@JPWX The Western Pacific is now at 129 days without the first TC. The GFS wants to wait until about the time that Ewiniar formed last year to spin up a storm this season.

Unrelated to the WPAC, Invest 94P was invest designated:
The GFS's 12Z run spun up this area for the first time:

 

[Atlantic]

About the time the GFS forms that modeled storm I mentioned on today's 12Z GFS:

@JPWX The Western Pacific is now at 129 days without the first TC. The GFS wants to wait until about the time that Ewiniar formed last year to spin up a storm this season.

Unrelated to the WPAC, Invest 94P was invest designated:
View attachment 41140The GFS's 12Z run spun up this area for the first time:
View attachment 41141
View attachment 41142

06Z May 23rd:

 

[Atlantic]

What the GFS expects in the 12Z for Invest 93P, also shows what the GFS expects for newly-designated Invest 94P:

 

[Atlantic]

Here is the 06Z model guidance on those areas:

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 93P became Tropical Cyclone 32P over the weekend. Invest 94P is noted as Tropical Low 34U by BoM and is a low chance by both BoM and the JTWC. The third signal I mentioned was given a designation as Invest 95P briefly, and it peaked at 40 kts (Likely a subtropical cyclone by the JTWC)

We need to watch the North Indian Ocean and the Eastern Pacific...

 

[Atlantic]

The Western Pacific is now at 132 days without the first TC.

With 32P's formation, the 2024-25 SHEM season is now the fourth conscective season to produce a TC after April 30th, and the third conscective season to have produced a TC before November 1st and produced a TC after April 30th (Producing a TC before the start of the season and after the end of the season)

 

[Atlantic]

With the recent designation of 32P, here is the ACE stats:


1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2024-25 = 259.6 (current)
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6

The 2024-25 season is now in 7th place for ACE all-time since 1980.

 

[Atlantic]

Here is the final warning info on 32P from earlier this morning:


32P (Tropical Low 33U) is located 885 km east-northeast of Darwin, Australia, and has tracked northward at 9 km/h (5 knots) over the past 6 hours. Minimum central pressure at 12/00:00 UTC is 1004 hPa. Maximum significant wave height is 3.7 meters (12 feet).

Satellite imagery shows 32P with a highly disorganized wind field. The low-level circulation has become stretched while the mid-level center remains displaced far to the east-southeast, near the flaring convection.

Analysis shows that 32P is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by strong poleward outflow, low (10–15 knots) wind shear, and warm (28–29°C) sea surface temperatures, offset by dry air entrainment. However, the environment is expected to quickly worsen as northerly shear increases to around 45 km/h (25 knots) in 12 hours, causing the vortex to further shallow.

32P is forecast to track off towards the west under the low-level easterly steering influence. Model guidance agrees on the westward track and no indication for redevelopment.

This is the final warning on this system by JTWC. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Warning Number 4. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).