That does make sense with the pattern going forward so don't dismiss the GFS. While it may not be that early around May 12th, we should get early season development around mid/late May out of the Western Caribbean.
It of course was gone in the 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS today.
I've been looking at Pivotal Weather and the GEFS and EFS models on here. They are all suggesting somewhere from around May 16th to the end of May is the timeframe to watch. The 00Z runs of the GEFS seem to like May 19th as a good day to start watching too.
Mid to Late May Caribbean development is more like the pre-2022 Atlantic. 2023 and 2024 were just interesting years without any May storms.
Do you follow the Lezak Reoccuring Cycle (LRC)?
I do but I'm not a paid subscriber. I do get their emails. It's interesting and from the bits that I've seen, it does well.
What do you think about this hurricane season, since we are likely just passed the spring barrier?
Brb, gonna get lunch real quick. I will reply when I can. Should be about 5-10 minutes from now.
To me, there's one year in particular that sticks out. 2018. That was a ENSO Neutral year. Overall, tornado activity was below normal though with only 1145 tornadoes that year (average is 1200). But the Atlantic hurricane season ended up above normal. One key thing is that I have found where the Gulf Coast has more tropical impacts/landfalls during ENSO Neutral years than Nino or Nina.
2024 was gulf heavy. To have second gulf heavy year in a row would not be good.
Awesome!
Can you make it a google doc or PDF or something? I lost track of the preivous thing you sent me and I couldn't access it anyway.
