2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

I am leaning towards Invest 94P (Tropical Low 34U) not forming. It just doesn't have the best environment to form in.

 

[Atlantic]

And 94P is gone with the wind!

Invest 94P (Tropical Low 34U) is currently located south of the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific Ocean. The system has a LOWchance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

What is an Invest?An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that is under investigation for its potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

The area of convection (Invest 94P / Tropical Low 34U) previously located near 11.2S 156.2E has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

 

[Atlantic]

Junkie alert! We have Invest 96S in the western Australian Region now.

 

[Atlantic]

The 2025 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has begun! TWO states no systems expected within the next seven days, as expected for the first day of the season.

 

[Atlantic]

There really isn't much to watch right now. Mostly we have uncertain signals in the Bay of Bengal (North Indian Ocean) and the Western Pacific for now.

 

[Atlantic]

The Western Pacific and the North Indian Ocean still have uncertain signals.


This May has been very inactive, with one TC having formed so far (Tropical Cyclone 32P by the JTWC or SH322025 according to IBTRACS)

 

[Atlantic]

This appears to be the remnants of 32P, approaching the equator;

 

[Atlantic]

@JPWX the Western Pacific continues its odd silent streak, as we are now at 139 days without the first TC. Last year formed its first TC 4 days from now (Ewiniar on May 24th)

 

[Atlantic]

Activity by month so far in 2025:


January 2025 - Intense Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi (SWIO) - 115 mph
Tropical Cyclone Pita (SPAC) - 50 mph
Tropical Low 09S (AR) - 35 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Sean (AR) - 130 mph
Moderate Tropical Storm Faida (SWIO) - 50 mph
Moderate Tropical Storm Elvis (SWIO) - 50 mph


February 2025 - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Vince (AR) - 155 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah (AR) - 105 mph
Tropical Cyclone 15P (SPAC) - 50 mph
Tropical Cyclone 16P (SPAC) - 45 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia (AR) - 150 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (AR) - 130 mph
Tropical Cyclone Rae (SPAC) - 105 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca (AR) - 115 mph
Tropical Cyclone Seru (SPAC) - 75 mph
Intense Tropical Cyclone Garance (SWIO) - 120 mph
Tropical Cyclone Honde (SWIO) - 80 mph
Severe Tropical Storm Ivone (SWIO) - 60 mph
Tropical Cyclone Jude (SWIO) - 90 mph


March 2025 - Tropical Cyclone 26S (AR) - 50 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney (AR) - 150 mph
Tropical Cyclone Dianne (AR) - 50 mph


April 2025 - Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol (AR) - 160 mph
Tropical Cyclone Tam (SPAC) - 60 mph
Tropical Cyclone 31S (AR) - 40 mph


May 2025 (As of Now) - Tropical Cyclone 32P (AR) - 40 mph

 

[Atlantic]

Activity by basin and month in 2025:

SWIO = THIS COLOR
AR = THIS COLOR
SPAC = THIS COLOR
SATL = THIS COLOR
NATL = THIS COLOR
EPAC = THIS COLOR
CPAC = THIS COLOR (CPAC combines with the EPAC)
WPAC = THIS COLOR
NIO = THIS COLOR
MED = THIS COLOR

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

January 2025 - Intense Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi (SWIO) - 115 mph
Tropical Cyclone Pita (SPAC) - 50 mph
Tropical Low 09S (AR) - 35 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Sean (AR) - 130 mph
Moderate Tropical Storm Faida (SWIO) - 50 mph
Moderate Tropical Storm Elvis (SWIO) - 50 mph


February 2025 - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Vince (AR) - 155 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah (AR) - 105 mph
Tropical Cyclone 15P (SPAC) - 50 mph
Tropical Cyclone 16P (SPAC) - 45 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia (AR) - 150 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (AR) - 130 mph
Tropical Cyclone Rae (SPAC) - 105 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca (AR) - 115 mph
Tropical Cyclone Seru (SPAC) - 75 mph
Intense Tropical Cyclone Garance (SWIO) - 120 mph
Tropical Cyclone Honde (SWIO) - 80 mph
Severe Tropical Storm Ivone (SWIO) - 60 mph
Tropical Cyclone Jude (SWIO) - 90 mph


March 2025 - Tropical Cyclone 26S (AR) - 50 mph
Severe Tropical Cyclone Courtney (AR) - 150 mph
Tropical Cyclone Dianne (AR) - 50 mph


April 2025 - Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol (AR) - 160 mph
Tropical Cyclone Tam (SPAC) - 60 mph
Tropical Cyclone 31S (AR) - 40 mph


May 2025 (As of Now) - Tropical Cyclone 32P (AR) - 40 mph

 

[Atlantic]

May has been unusually inactive, with 32P as the only TC to have formed so far this month. 32P was short-lived and very weak. One could say that May is acting like April is supposed to.

 

[Atlantic]

2025 has regained the second-warmest SST's for the time on record for around the globe!

 

[Atlantic]

The Eastern Pacific signal is growing for around May 27-31. It is something we should keep an eye on.

We also have the North Indian Ocean to watch as well.

 

[Atlantic]

And so it begins.... please welcome the first in-season Area of Interest of 2025 everyone!

 

[Atlantic]

And so it begins.... please welcome the first in-season Area of Interest of 2025 everyone!
View attachment 42666

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 20 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend into early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

 

[Atlantic]

The Eastern Pacific signal is growing for around May 27-31. It is something we should keep an eye on.

We also have the North Indian Ocean to watch as well.

The area of interest in the Arabian Sea has been designated Invest 93A:

 

[Atlantic]

The area of interest in the Arabian Sea has been designated Invest 93A:
View attachment 42668

Very aggressive guidience on Invest 93A:

 

[Atlantic]

The JTWC has noted Invest 93A:

 

[Atlantic]

Whoops on the NHC’s part (00Z May 20th) It is actually May 21st UTC time

 

[Atlantic]

The Eastern Pacific Area of Interest is up to 30% in the seven day range now according to the NHC.