2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

@JPWX, throughout several consective GEFS 00Z that go out 840 hours, The GEFS has been consistant on an area going out NE out of the Caribbean some time in the second half of May.


This would be within climo for May/June.

 

[JPWX]

Can you make it a google doc or PDF or something? I lost track of the preivous thing you sent me and I couldn't access it anyway.

I can do the PDF for the spreadsheets. Mom and I had talked about doing the PDF for the Tropical PowerPoints, but the radar/satellite animations wouldn't work.

 

[Atlantic]

I can do the PDF for the spreadsheets. Mom and I had talked about doing the PDF for the Tropical PowerPoints, but the radar/satellite animations wouldn't work.

I understand. Do you have another area to access the radar/satelitte animations seperately?

 

[JPWX]

I understand. Do you have another area to access the radar/satelitte animations seperately?

I don't but I need to get those PowerPoints uploaded on my website. I will get around to that eventually.

 

[Atlantic]

I look forward to it!

I don't but I need to get those PowerPoints uploaded on my website. I will get around to that eventually.

We also have to watch the Eastern Pacific for possible development as well around the same timeframe as the Atlantic.

 

[Atlantic]

Another thing to prove the LRC:

Here is an Invest from late-November 2018...


And the fatal Hurricane Dorian disturbance (The system that became Hurricane Dorian):


The first two photos showcase the signal that would produce Hurricane Dorian in the end.

 

[Atlantic]

I am beginning to lose interest in 99W. The GFS doesn't do much with it and forms it briefly several days from now. The EURO has trended down on strong typhoon support it seems, and I am beginning to lose confidence that 99W will form at all.

We are at 122 days without the first storm in the Western Pacific now.

 

[Atlantic]

Anddd the EPAC storm signals are back-

 

[Atlantic]

The SPAC looks like it will have a sloppy ITCZ mode coming up here soon that could produce a post-season TC. We also should keep an eye on the Australian Region north of the Gulf of Carpentaria for development as well.

Oh, forgot to mention that the former Tropical Cyclone 31S was given a brief new invest designation near the island of Jakarta as Invest 92S.

 

[Atlantic]

The SPAC looks like it will have a sloppy ITCZ mode coming up here soon that could produce a post-season TC. We also should keep an eye on the Australian Region north of the Gulf of Carpentaria for development as well.

Oh, forgot to mention that the former Tropical Cyclone 31S was given a brief new invest designation near the island of Jakarta as Invest 92S.

The 00Z, 06Z and 12Z EURO runs of today;

 

[Atlantic]

99W does not appear as though it will form. We are now at 124 days in the Western Pacific without the first TC.

This is also the second year in a row that the Northern Hemisphere had gone this late without TC.

2024’s NHEM season started on May 24th with the formation of Tropical Depression 01W, which later became Typhoon Ewiniar (Philippine name Aghon)

 

[Atlantic]

It wouldn't be the GFS without your average modeled May Major Hurricane in the Atlantic!

 

[Atlantic]

The GFS continues with the May Major Hurricane:

 

[Atlantic]

The 06Z and 12Z runs (Hour 156 to Hour 384) showing this May "Major Hurricane":

12Z:

06Z:

 

[slenker]

The 06Z and 12Z runs (Hour 156 to Hour 384) showing this May "Major Hurricane":

Reminds me of hurricanes that form near the end of the season, like Michael/Sandy/Eta/Iota. Forming in the deep Caribbean just north of Panama and making that northeast/west jog after a bout of intensification. Pretty interesting to see that being modeled in May, of all months. It's obviously not going to happen but I just find it a bit weird.

 

[Atlantic]

Reminds me of hurricanes that form near the end of the season, like Michael/Sandy/Eta/Iota. Forming in the deep Caribbean just north of Panama and making that northeast/west jog after a bout of intensification. Pretty interesting to see that being modeled in May, of all months. It's obviously not going to happen but I just find it a bit weird.

Reminds me of the fact that the GFS was modeling a major hurricane for years in June, and it didn't happen for years until it did (Hurricane Beryl in 2024)

 

[Atlantic]

The 06Z and 12Z runs (Hour 156 to Hour 384) showing this May "Major Hurricane":

12Z:
View attachment 40979
06Z:
View attachment 40980

18Z showed an even stronger storm at 944 mbs. But we all know that if it forms at all it will likely be weaker than the GFS is forecasting:

 

[Atlantic]

Just casually going through the Storm2K thread on Cyclone Freddy from 2023 and I caught this from a discussion from the JTWC comparing Freddy to a B-reel horror movie!

 

[Atlantic]

Just casually going through the Storm2K thread on Cyclone Freddy from 2023 and I caught this from a discussion from the JTWC comparing Freddy to a B-reel horror movie!
View attachment 40986

Their final warning on Freddy from 2023;

 

[JPWX]

Hey @Atlantic do you happen to know how many total advisories were issued on Freddy?