2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[majorhurricane1703]

I’m going to test a very bold theory here. I predict Erin will come to a very slow crawl or stall at some point in its life. The trough will initially start to pull it northwest, but I think western flank of the Bermuda high will build back in farther west than what models currently think. That will allow Erin to continue on a more north northwest track and increase a North Carolina to New England landfall.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Plus I really don’t think the trough is going to be strong enough. All it would take is for those small little things for the models to underestimate a tiny bit to make a drastic difference.

 

[MattW]

Here's the HAFS-A and HAFS-B 24-hour error plots -- pretty darn good! These hurricane models are nailing this storm so far.


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And their 48-hour lag is great too, barring the first one when the circulation wasn't well-defined yet.

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But the Official forecast is still King (only has 12-hour lag currently because the official forecast hasn't existed 24 hours yet):

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Will try to keep posting these model verifications as we go, so we can see which models are grasping with this storm the best. I'll also start doing intensity verifications too, once the storm resumes strengthening.

I love these plots! Minor suggestion though, would it be possible to draw lines connecting the points?

 

[wx_guy]

I went ahead and pulled the trigger on a thread! (Sorry Atlantic, I didn't know when you'd be back in the thread.)

 

[wx_guy]

I love these plots! Minor suggestion though, would it be possible to draw lines connecting the points?

I can do that, yeah.