2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[majorhurricane1703]

I actually am looking closely at 99L, there's indications it may fizzle out in the Caribbean Graveyard, but if it survives, it could be pretty sneaky perhaps!

View attachment 46292

Not so sure about that. It is is firing off really good convection and will be entering higher oceanic heat content. I think the strong vortex will make it resilient against the shear in the Caribbean. Plus the 12Z Euro ensembles are starting to pop up even if it is a weak signal. Not sure I would trust the models with intensity at least at this point.

 

[Atlantic]

Not so sure about that. It is is firing off really good convection and will be entering higher oceanic heat content. I think the strong vortex will make it resilient against the shear in the Caribbean. Plus the 12Z Euro ensembles are starting to pop up even if it is a weak signal. Not sure I would trust the models with intensity at least at this point.

Tbh, I’m watching this closely in case it becomes another Oscar.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

5

Erin fit the timeframe, MDR origin, and fishspinner track...but the intensity was DEAD wrong! Accuracy: 15-20%
Fernand, it appears, is also accurate for the timeframe but is far, far away from the Gulf. Accuracy: around 5%.

 

[N0mz]

99L had my curiosity a couple days ago, now it definitely has my attention.

 

[wx_guy]

For 99L, here's the 0z models Genesis Probabilities, based on a Bayesian modeling algorithm I developed. Puts percentages at about 40%, heavily centered on when it nears the islands.

 

[wx_guy]

For 06z:




Let's see if it can pull it off.

 

[wx_guy]

For 12z. About the same story. Its best chance of developing and surviving is establishing itself over the next 24 hours, so we'll see if it can do that. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today, so maybe they'll find something.

 

[Atlantic]

For 12z. About the same story. Its best chance of developing and surviving is establishing itself over the next 24 hours, so we'll see if it can do that. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today, so maybe they'll find something.


View attachment 46308

They are investigating now.

I’m not sure if an LLC is present or not. If a well-defined LLC is present this will go straight to TS Gabrielle because this system already has 35 kt winds:

 

[wx_guy]

They are investigating now.

I’m not sure if an LLC is present or not. If a well-defined LLC is present this will go straight to TS Gabrielle because this system already has 35 kt winds:

I've watched the tropics for a few decades now (since I was 5), and I'm *always* on alert when a storm in this area forms. It's the location roughly of some of the worst of the worst (Harvey, Ian, Charley, Maria) if you include the path it's on. The Eastern Caribbean is often referred to as the Graveyard for tropical cyclones, and for good reason -- many can't make it past it. But those that can often become hugely problematic. We'll have to watch carefully.

 

[wx_guy]

About a 10% drop in model support for TCG since the 12z runs. Yet, the little system continues to defy.

 

[JPWX]

Invest 99L reminds me somewhat of how Hurricane Harvey started.

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 99L reminds me somewhat of how Hurricane Harvey started.

How did Harvey start?

 

[JPWX]

How did Harvey start?

Well, Harvey became a tropical storm prior to reaching the Eastern Caribbean and maintained that intensity when it went in. It fell apart as it got further into the Central Caribbean and didn't regain tropical status until it's remnants found a more favorable environment in the Bay Of Campeche.

 

[Atlantic]

Well, Harvey became a tropical storm prior to reaching the Eastern Caribbean and maintained that intensity when it went in. It fell apart as it got further into the Central Caribbean and didn't regain tropical status until it's remnants found a more favorable environment in the Bay Of Campeche.

Though our 99L is running out of time to become a TS before entering the Caribbean.