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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Basically what's coming up the next few weeks and beyond
 

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The fact that it's only June and we're getting this many invests alone really scares me, and now there's a signal from the Euro of a strong hurricane in the Caribbean. This season's ceiling is looking like it can be pretty wild.
 
Eric Blake wrote this discussion this evening:

"Environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is anticipated.
A tropical depression or tropical storm could form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. "
20240626_185428.jpg
 
JBishopwx said:
Eric Blake wrote this discussion this evening:

"Environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is anticipated.
A tropical depression or tropical storm could form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. "
View attachment 28874
Click to expand...
The way just about every forecast model run looked today especially the Euro, this would be the biggest threat thus far this season to the U.S.
 
AL95 still in the middle of the Atlantic now at 70% chances of development over the next 7 days.
 
ACF051D1-B9FB-4EAC-8118-5D5B44A2F8DE.jpeg
Don’t quite know what to make of this. Euro seems to have backed off slightly on the intensity, but it’s still a substantial system being forecast with it. I don’t know what crack the HWFI is smoking because it’s just going into July at that point and most models seem to see the system beginning to weaken by 120 hours out.
 
AL95 now at 80% chance of 7-day development and 60% within 48 hours.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Click to expand...
 
One thing I'll say about 95L is that it has that look of pulling a few surprises.
 
AL95 now at 70/90 odds. Looking better organized.
1719537758526.png
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive. Thus,
further development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the
Windward Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Click to expand...
 
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