2020 Political Thread

[ghost]

Or you could click on the link and go look for yourself.

I did.. I see an opinion article about a housing crash. I don't see anything about gas prices or the chart you posted without the headers. Want to try again?

 

[Evan]

Just did some heavy lifting calculating out all the remaining absentee ballots for each county in GA with pending absentee ballots. A reporter pulled a list from the 11/4 absentee voter file subtracted by absentees already tabulated into the current results.

I basically gave Trump the exact same margin of victory in any red country he's already getting even if that included in-person voting. For the Biden counties I gave Biden the same exact margin EXCEPT for Fulton and Dekalb. I projected this out at 75/25 ratio for Biden/Trump.

This results in Biden winning by 13k or so. If I simply give Trump and Biden their current margins and don't tweak for the two Atlanta counties being bluer for absentee ballots, I see a Trump victory by 10k. That would be an absolute worst case scenario for Biden (outside of a bunch of ballots in a blue area being disqualified). A more aggressive scenario in which the remaining blue counties have absentee rates for Biden similar to what he's already racks up results in a Biden victory at about 20k or so.

I believe the range of possibilities to be Trump winning by 10k up to Biden winning by 20k. A blend gives us Biden by 13k as previously mentioned.

We'll just have to see how the final ballots look. If they are in the 13k - 20k range for Biden then no chance military ballots have an impact. I think if Biden wins by less than 5k then military ballots could push it almost to even but Biden would still be strongly favored.

Maybe my math is off or too optimistic. Maybe more Dem ballots need to he cured or are disqualified compared to GOP ballots. Maybe the remaining absentee are redder than expected. Any of that could happen. But, my best guess is Biden wins by somewhere around 13k or more.

Biden lead up to 10k in Georgia. There were still 180k ballots left to count and Trump had a lead of over 30k when I made the 13k projection.

If even a total dilettante like me can get that close then you have to think the Decision Desks at the various networks are orders of magnitude better at projecting election results. They knew long before yesterday morning that Trump had no path to victory. That they waited as long as they did to call the election shows remarkable restraint.

Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is now over 40k. He will likely end up with a lead of between 75-80k if not a tad higher.

Biden's lead in Nevada is north of 27k. Based on outstanding ballots, he will likely finish with a lead of between 45-50k.

Biden leads by 18k in Arizona, but still around 50k regular ballots and 45k provisional ballots left. Provisionals should be a wash in either direction. Trump would need 70% of the remaining 50k to close the lead with Biden. Based off of where votes are left, Biden will win Arizona by around 8-12k alth if the provisionals skew Trump and are largely accepted it could get down to around 5k.

The President needs to concede. For the good of the country. There's no possible way he's overcoming those large margins in Pennsylvania and Nevada. They can push all the fraud claims they want -- they won't be able to make up Biden's margin of victory even if they can produce concrete evidence of minor fraud (which they won't be able to do anyway).

 

[Evan]

I did.. I see an opinion article about a housing crash. I don't see anything about gas prices or the chart you posted without the headers. Want to try again?

He's referring to the link I posted. That's where his numbers came from.

 

[gangstonc]

I heard a blurb on WAFF that Biden may be considering Doug Jones as his Attorney General. Any thoughts on that?

Obviously Jones has some good civil rights victories, but I don’t know much else about him other than he is barely better than a pedophile and not as good a football coach who has no policies or agenda.

 

[ghost]

He's referring to the link I posted. That's where his numbers came from.

Ok... I thought he meant the link he posted

 

[ghost]

Obviously Jones has some good civil rights victories, but I don’t know much else about him other than he is barely better than a pedophile and not as good a football coach who has no policies or agenda.

I think he has the clueless football coach beat

 

[ghost]

I really thought ole Blountwolf (formerly known as Snownose) would make a brief appearance in this forum after the events of the last few days

 

[JayF]

Remember when a couple of crazies were asking Senator John McCain about Obama in 2008 during a town hall, accusing him of being involved in a cohort of domestic terrorists and extremist etc... And McCain stopped them to reject that notion and stated that his opponent was a decent family man and they just had disagreements? That's the class and character we need in our politics right now. Maybe it's a Trump effect but I couldn't imagine politicians these days just straight up denounce such rhetoric. Both sides need to condemn their respective extremist "teammates" and their outlandish claims (that's very unlikely to happen of course) because it seems to me that those groups are becoming larger and louder. The partisanship is absolutely going to run us into the ground.

On a similar note, I had somebody today (70+ year old lady), unprovoked, tell me that socialism is upon us with Biden now being elected. Uhhh. Sure we can reasonably disagree with the guys policies, but he's very far from a true socialist... Maybe it's just a buzz word??? How are we in a situation where people on the far left think Biden could be better if he was more left and people on the far right/medium right think he's a far left nut job? It seems like the people who see Biden as a generic Democrat politician are in the minority.



I am very appreciative that we can have a civil discussion on this forum with highly intelligent users from both sides of the isle bringing forward their perspectives. It's difficult to find such an educational and respectful political discussion anywhere on the internet or in real life these days. Thank you all for that.

I mean I don't disagree with you, but where has this been for the last 4 years?

 

[JayF]

I heard a blurb on WAFF that Biden may be considering Doug Jones as his Attorney General. Any thoughts on that?

My only thought includes my head in the palms of my hands shaking my head back and forth. We just had one failed Attorney General from Alabama, do we really think we need another failed Attorney General to make the state look even worse.

 

[JayF]

I think he has the clueless football coach beat

Only in the fact that he has a law degree. However, he has been sided with the most liberal of Democrats when it comes to the Right to Life, Gun Control, and the push to Oust DJT whether you agree with him or not. I think most Alabamians are pro-life, even if you do not agree with the pro-life stance, you have to agree that Alabama as a majority does. I think Most Alabamians are Pro-Traditional Family, even if you don't agree with the pro-traditional family, I believe that Alabama as a majority does. So when someone like Doug Jones, comes in and tries to do things not according to the values of those who live in Alabama, he is going to get voted out. I really only think he was elected because of who his opponent was.

I do hope that Tuberville Catches on and will be decent. Otherwise, he will be primaried in 6 years.

 

[JayF]

So while we may disagree on-premise, This is actually how I feel about whoever is president.

Take a look.

 

[Mike S]

My only thought includes my head in the palms of my hands shaking my head back and forth. We just had one failed Attorney General from Alabama, do we really think we need another failed Attorney General to make the state look even worse.

Jones would be Biden's AG, so the media won't allow him to fail.

 

[JayF]

Jones would be Biden's AG, so the media won't allow him to fail.

Or will cover for his failures.

 

[ghost]

Only in the fact that he has a law degree. However, he has been sided with the most liberal of Democrats when it comes to the Right to Life, Gun Control, and the push to Oust DJT whether you agree with him or not. I think most Alabamians are pro-life, even if you do not agree with the pro-life stance, you have to agree that Alabama as a majority does. I think Most Alabamians are Pro-Traditional Family, even if you don't agree with the pro-traditional family, I believe that Alabama as a majority does. So when someone like Doug Jones, comes in and tries to do things not according to the values of those who live in Alabama, he is going to get voted out. I really only think he was elected because of who his opponent was.

I do hope that Tuberville Catches on and will be decent. Otherwise, he will be primaried in 6 years.

I am definitely Pro-Life. I don't agree with Jones on his stance, but I've given up on the Repubs being serious about doing anything relevant on it besides giving it lip service. They had their chance 2-3 yrs ago and didn't do anything substantive. They use that as a carrot to dangle in front of Christians for political fodder.

 

[JayF]

I am definitely Pro-Life. I don't agree with Jones on his stance, but I've given up on the Repubs being serious about doing anything relevant on it besides giving it lip service. They had their chance 2-3 yrs ago and didn't do anything substantive. They use that as a carrot to dangle in front of Christians for political fodder.

Unfortunately, I cannot refute or disagree with your statement. They have had opportunities.

 

[ghost]

Been seeing a lot of traffic on FB today among many of my friends encouraging a mass exodus to a new social media site called "Parler". From what I can infer... they are saying free speech won't be stifled over there and you can speak your mind without fear of censorship. Anybody know much about "Parler"? I can say all the many people who are going there to establish accounts are friends who are very upset with the results of the election. Anyone here on "Parler" and can fill me in on what's the allure?

Maybe this should be in the Banter thread, but I posted it here because it seems to have political overtones

 

[Jacob]

I have a Parler account, but not sure I’ve been on it since the day I made it.

If it becomes and stays what they advertise it as, I think it can be a good platform. Twitter has unfortunately become quite partition, which is what is driving some people to Parler.

 

[Mike S]

seems to be a place where lies and conspiracy theories can thrive unchecked. I'm not sure if it is competition to Facebook or Twitter.

Of course, Twitter is a huge cesspool in its own way.

 

[Evan]

I don't think which social media platform you use is the issue although some platforms are clearly worse than others. People like to blame a lot of our current troubles on social media, but America is America. No one is holding a gun to our heads making us act like how people act on social media. People choose to be nasty and toxic.

The idea that big tech is censoring us into oblivion is weird to me. I've never ever been warned or banned on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc. Ever. I pretty much always say exactly what I think. Do the platforms make the occasional mistake? Sure. I wish they would actually crack down more. I'm tired of the 15% who are extremists on either side controlling the conversation.

 

[Evan]

Only in the fact that he has a law degree. However, he has been sided with the most liberal of Democrats when it comes to the Right to Life, Gun Control, and the push to Oust DJT whether you agree with him or not. I think most Alabamians are pro-life, even if you do not agree with the pro-life stance, you have to agree that Alabama as a majority does. I think Most Alabamians are Pro-Traditional Family, even if you don't agree with the pro-traditional family, I believe that Alabama as a majority does. So when someone like Doug Jones, comes in and tries to do things not according to the values of those who live in Alabama, he is going to get voted out. I really only think he was elected because of who his opponent was.

I do hope that Tuberville Catches on and will be decent. Otherwise, he will be primaried in 6 years.

Most Alabamians are not Pro-Life. They're anti-abortion, but they're totally fine with state-sanctioned execution of innocent adults. In my view, to be truly Pro-Life, you have to be against both abortion and the death penalty. Many will disagree with my take. That's OK. I have to follow my conscience.

I will always be against abortion and the death penalty. Life is sacred and should be preserved.