2020 Political Thread

[Jacob]

Well it is election morning, what does everybody think happens today? Safe money is obviously on Biden. Here's my guess at what I think will happen.

There's a decent chance that this map was 100% perfect, unfortunately, heh.

 

[Evan]

I wasn't saying it was pure fraud or anything of the sort. Just that stuff like that is just perfect for conspiracy people because of how the internet works these days with the cesspool that is social media.

Gateway Pundit is going to Gateway Pundit. Nothing you or I can do about it except to educate people on the safeguards built into absentee ballot handling in most states. Or, use simple logic like point out why would there be this massive planned conspiracy to dump fraudulent ballots to help Biden but they somehow forgot to mark Peters on those ballots or rig some additional ballots for him? Because John James has a very good chance of winning and causing the Dems to lose an absolute must win Senate seat.

All I'm really saying is that there's really nothing we can do to force people to confront facts or logic if they choose to cloak themselves in conspiracy theories. I could be questioning the results right now and saying Biden should've won Ohio and North Carolina, but instead I'm just going to own that I was too optimistic there and thought the corrections pollsters made resulted in much better polling this cycle. I was wrong.

I actually think the polling was better in most places and did fix most of the issues with white non-college voters. But they screwed up with Black and Hispanic non-college and those demographics in general.

 

[KoD]

Not only did Trump sow distrust in mail-in ballots leading to less of his supporters to use them, but lots of states conservative legislatures refused to pass laws that allowed them to get a head start on counting mail in ballots. There's no surprise that they're overwhelmingly for Biden and the delay is their own doing.

 

[Evan]

I just would like for the USPS to provide a cogent explanation of why those particular areas have been impacted so heavily.

Perhaps there's a logical verifiable reason for it. The judge should require an explanation with written evidence and documentation. It's useful to stave off conspiracy theories and to preserve evidence in the very remote chance something intentional or targeted was done to impact ballot delivery in those areas.

Here's one potential explanation:

 

[Evan]

There's a decent chance that this map was 100% perfect, unfortunately, heh.

It's very difficult to find data on it, but the sources that have it show Maine 2 going for Trump.

 

[Jacob]

It's very difficult to find data on it, but the sources that have it show Maine 2 going for Trump.

Yep, just saw it was called. So close, heh.

 

[Jacob]

Looks to me like it is going to be 259-259 and waiting on Pennsylvania. Based on the estimated number of ballots out there and how those votes have been breaking, still looks pretty strong for Biden.

 

[KoD]

I'm thinking 270-268

Georgia will be very close. Pennsylvania close but perhaps not as much. We'll see.

 

[Evan]

Georgia is going to be recount close. Whomever wins, whether Trump or Biden, is likely to win by just 5-10k votes.

 

[Evan]

Biden needs either AZ, GA, or PA. Trump must have all three.

 

[Evan]

Just did some heavy lifting calculating out all the remaining absentee ballots for each county in GA with pending absentee ballots. A reporter pulled a list from the 11/4 absentee voter file subtracted by absentees already tabulated into the current results.

I basically gave Trump the exact same margin of victory in any red country he's already getting even if that included in-person voting. For the Biden counties I gave Biden the same exact margin EXCEPT for Fulton and Dekalb. I projected this out at 75/25 ratio for Biden/Trump.

This results in Biden winning by 13k or so. If I simply give Trump and Biden their current margins and don't tweak for the two Atlanta counties being bluer for absentee ballots, I see a Trump victory by 10k. That would be an absolute worst case scenario for Biden (outside of a bunch of ballots in a blue area being disqualified). A more aggressive scenario in which the remaining blue counties have absentee rates for Biden similar to what he's already racks up results in a Biden victory at about 20k or so.

I believe the range of possibilities to be Trump winning by 10k up to Biden winning by 20k. A blend gives us Biden by 13k as previously mentioned.

We'll just have to see how the final ballots look. If they are in the 13k - 20k range for Biden then no chance military ballots have an impact. I think if Biden wins by less than 5k then military ballots could push it almost to even but Biden would still be strongly favored.

Maybe my math is off or too optimistic. Maybe more Dem ballots need to he cured or are disqualified compared to GOP ballots. Maybe the remaining absentee are redder than expected. Any of that could happen. But, my best guess is Biden wins by somewhere around 13k or more.

 

[Evan]

I should add. I only did this calculation for the counties with the 10 highest remaining totals of absentee because I believe the remaining counties largely offset each other.

 

[Evan]

Trump counties in GA reporting their absentee ballots in the past hour have actually split more for Biden except for the occasional report where Trump might win by a few hundred.

Assuming there really are as many absentees left in Atlanta as the SoS and counties claim, and there aren't some kind of defect with them, it's getting tough for Trump in a hurry. He had to run up the score on Biden or at least add to his vote total when his counties report renaming absentees. It's not happening so far and Trump is in real danger unless absentees from other red counties trend not favorably toward him.

Despite many of the Atlanta ballots not being available until 5-9pm Eastern this evening, we should still see a lot of the red counties pour in. If those are not solid Trump then it seems like Biden will pull this off and win GA.

 

[Jacob]

There's still 2 possible scenarios out there for Trump, neither of which is very likely with this point.

Biden's betting odds have increased from -350 a few hours ago to -900 now.

 

[ARCC]

Trump pulling this off is rather remote. Should Biden win it will be a two to four year vacation for Congress with probably a few big spending bills. That is a dream for them with the ability to attribute their lack of partisan bills on the other party.

 

[KoD]

"Stop the count"

Very democratic of them

 

[Evan]

I thought last night when they supposedly stopped counting votes (they actually didn't) in the states Trump was behind in that it meant someone was stealing the election. I take it we should memory-hole that since Emperor Trump has now decreed otherwise?

Looks like they have now filed a lawsuit in Georgia to stop the counting of the remaining ballots there.

 

[KoD]

They must be seriously concerned about GA, and rightfully so. Biden is down 37K votes and there's 110K absentee/mail-in ballots still to count.

 

[KoD]

What are y'alls thoughts on Pennsylvania? Trump was ahead by something like 640k votes late last night. They went from 66% to 87% reporting since then and Biden is behind by 177k votes now.

With 13% of the ballots left there should be around 780k more to process and presumably most all of them would be absentee ballots.

 

[Jacob]

What are y'alls thoughts on Pennsylvania? Trump was ahead by something like 640k votes late last night. They went from 66% to 87% reporting since then and Biden is behind by 177k votes now.

With 13% of the ballots left there should be around 780k more to process and presumably most all of them would be absentee ballots.

It's pretty much a done deal there. Philly will dump around 250k Biden votes eventually and it'll lead to a 100k+ margin.