2020 Political Thread

[gangstonc]

Yeah, Arizona really seemed to move the market.

I'm heading to bed. I wonder if we'll have a winner when I wake up at 5am???

I think it will be Friday before we know about Oennsylvannia.

 

[KoD]

Although it was expected Biden would win Virginia, seeing the metro area suddenly drop huge numbers for Biden can give us hints at what is possible in other areas as early/absentee ballots are factored in.
Biden was at 1.45m vs Trump 1.51m
Fairfax reported a large chunk of votes
Biden at 1.84m vs Trump 1.61m

Given the ~1 million outstanding early ballots in pennsylvania and other ohio valley/great lake states, a lot can change.
Regardless there's some substantial leads going on in those states which are far less blue than Virginia.

 

[Evan]

I think people are really underestimating the mail and absentee vote, and people were warned against that repeatedly. I think Biden still has a shot in NC/GA. He'll definitely win Wisconsin, MN, and very little absentee vote has been counted in Michigan. I'm still bullish there.

Right now Florida has been my only surprise because I really thought the Cuban shift wouldn't be quite as stark. Networks have called Ohio for Biden. Absentees can arrive up to 10 days after election if postmarked yesterday.

I'm not saying Biden will win Ohio. But I still think he will win one of NC/GA, if not both, and will win MI, MN, WI, and PA. It's just going to take a LONG time to count all those ballots. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I'm confident that Biden has won the election.

 

[Evan]

All the data I'm seeing, in reference to absentee ballots, is that Biden is winning those by about 2:1 in MI/WI/PA and by the numbers he will more than make up the current reported election day deficit.

Feel free to throw rotten tomatoes at me if I'm wrong, but I believe Biden's margin in MI/WI/PA will be substantially larger than the margin Trump won by in 2016.

It's funny how people spent so much time preparing for extended tabulation and counting of absentee, and then panicked and freaked out when Trump led in election day voting as he was always projected to do.

It's a long way to Friday, but Biden should have at least a 40-50 EV lead by then.

 

[gangstonc]

I think Biden will win Georgia.

 

[KoD]

Trump tweet: "Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!"
CNN's Jim Acosta: "of course the president there uh, misspelling the word polls"

 

[WesL]

A little laugh for the night. Looking forward to the response from Stormey Daniels...

The President has deleted and reposted the tweet with the correct spelling.

 

[Evan]

I think Biden will win Georgia.

It's going to be extremely close. My rough calculation has Biden pulling it out by 10-15k. However, that's based on a lot of assumptions I cannot verify.

What we do know is that there are around 650k votes left in Biden leaning counties and 90k left in Trump leaning counties. Trump is up by about 236k. Really depends upon the makeup of those ballots as well. If they are largely absentee from heavily Democratic areas then that's very favorable odds to Biden.

Right now, I'd say 60/40 odds Biden/Trump to win Georgia. Going to simply be amazing if Georgia flipped and Florida didn't. Who had that one?

 

[Evan]

I've seen enough evidence that I am absolutely convinced. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will be the 46th President of the United States.

I believe that Biden is going to win Georgia, and with that Trump's path is all but blocked unless he wins WI/MI/PA and Arizona is uncalled and flipped to Trump. Even if Biden loses a close one in Georgia, Trump's margin is decreasing by the moment in WI/MI. Even if he wins Pennsylvania and the Arizona called is reversed, he's blocked because WI/MI are no longer winnable.

It's over.

 

[gangstonc]

I've seen enough evidence that I am absolutely convinced. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will be the 46th President of the United States.

I believe that Biden is going to win Georgia, and with that Trump's path is all but blocked unless he wins WI/MI/PA and Arizona is uncalled and flipped to Trump. Even if Biden loses a close one in Georgia, Trump's margin is decreasing by the moment in WI/MI. Even if he wins Pennsylvania and the Arizona called is reversed, he's blocked because WI/MI are no longer winnable.

It's over.

I agree.

 

[WesL]

Wow. That's all I can say about that speech by President Trump.

 

[Jacob]

Doesn't look good for Trump this morning.

Not looking forward to a Harris presidency myself, but I'll keep living my life just as I have been and hope I'm wrong about what to expect.

 

[Jacob]

Whether or not the VBM totals in Michigan are partially fraudulent or 100% legitimate, the way they are being released is going to cause this to end up in courts and a conspiracy theorist's dream. A batch of 138k votes came in earlier this morning and came in 138k votes for Biden, 0 for Trump, 0 for 3rd party.

I had personally hoped for a blowout either way, because stuff like this will cause this to not be a quiet result.

 

[Mike S]

I went ahead and grabbed Biden at +200. I figure I'll try to get some of my taxes back ahead of time that will almost certainly be increased.

 

[WesL]

Whether or not the VBM totals in Michigan are partially fraudulent or 100% legitimate, the way they are being released is going to cause this to end up in courts and a conspiracy theorist's dream. A batch of 138k votes came in earlier this morning and came in 138k votes for Biden, 0 for Trump, 0 for 3rd party.

I had personally hoped for a blowout either way, because stuff like this will cause this to not be a quiet result.

I agree 110% on all your points. I was hoping for a slam dunk either way to avoid the months of lawsuits

 

[gangstonc]

New USPS data filed in federal court this morning.

Incoming ballot delivery scores 11/3:
- Atlanta, 82.2%
- Central PA, 61.3%
- Philadelphia, 66.3%
- Detroit, 78.9%
- Greensboro (NC), 72.9%
- Lakeland (Wisc.), 76.8%

These numbers are startling. I wouldn’t be a surprise if there was a huge fight over counting the remaining ballots.

 

[Lori]

Looks like a K Harris presidency...I don’t enjoy her at all....

 

[Evan]

Whether or not the VBM totals in Michigan are partially fraudulent or 100% legitimate, the way they are being released is going to cause this to end up in courts and a conspiracy theorist's dream. A batch of 138k votes came in earlier this morning and came in 138k votes for Biden, 0 for Trump, 0 for 3rd party.

I had personally hoped for a blowout either way, because stuff like this will cause this to not be a quiet result.

That was a data entry error by Decision Desk HQ related to a particular county in Michigan. It was corrected within minutes but the screenshots have predictably found their way to the usual right-wing disinfo peddlers.

I watched that issue happen live because Tim Alberta (Michigan native) was suddenly saying Biden was only down by 70k at like 1am or so last night. It was due to the data entry error.

There's absolutely nothing to suggest any form of fraud taking place in Michigan. Again, the systems for absentee ballots make it such that there is a pretty clear paper trail and tracking in most states. On top of that, Biden's numbers are very consistent and similar to Hillary's from 2016 minus slight upticks in the exact places Biden was expected to do slightly better.

Not only does Michigan have an absentee ballot tracking system, the absentee tabulation in all of its most populous counties has had a Trump/GOP rep and Biden/Dem rep alongside the election workers as processed the absentee ballots. They've been making challenges here and there to certain ballots.

Voter fraud is a lot harder to commit or hide than people think it is. There's numerous fail-safes and systems of oversight built-in modeling on best practices of data integrity and physical security.

 

[Evan]

New USPS data filed in federal court this morning.

Incoming ballot delivery scores 11/3:
- Atlanta, 82.2%
- Central PA, 61.3%
- Philadelphia, 66.3%
- Detroit, 78.9%
- Greensboro (NC), 72.9%
- Lakeland (Wisc.), 76.8%

These numbers are startling. I wouldn’t be a surprise if there was a huge fight over counting the remaining ballots.

I just would like for the USPS to provide a cogent explanation of why those particular areas have been impacted so heavily.

Perhaps there's a logical verifiable reason for it. The judge should require an explanation with written evidence and documentation. It's useful to stave off conspiracy theories and to preserve evidence in the very remote chance something intentional or targeted was done to impact ballot delivery in those areas.

 

[Jacob]

That was a data entry error by Decision Desk HQ related to a particular county in Michigan. It was corrected within minutes but the screenshots have predictably found their way to the usual right-wing disinfo peddlers.

I watched that issue happen live because Tim Alberta (Michigan native) was suddenly saying Biden was only down by 70k at like 1am or so last night. It was due to the data entry error.

There's absolutely nothing to suggest any form of fraud taking place in Michigan. Again, the systems for absentee ballots make it such that there is a pretty clear paper trail and tracking in most states. On top of that, Biden's numbers are very consistent and similar to Hillary's from 2016 minus slight upticks in the exact places Biden was expected to do slightly better.

Not only does Michigan have an absentee ballot tracking system, the absentee tabulation in all of its most populous counties has had a Trump/GOP rep and Biden/Dem rep alongside the election workers as processed the absentee ballots. They've been making challenges here and there to certain ballots.

Voter fraud is a lot harder to commit or hide than people think it is. There's numerous fail-safes and systems of oversight built-in modeling on best practices of data integrity and physical security.

I wasn't saying it was pure fraud or anything of the sort. Just that stuff like that is just perfect for conspiracy people because of how the internet works these days with the cesspool that is social media.