2020 Political Thread

[gangstonc]

Surprised me 0%. You should see some of the WhatsApp groups. They make Q-Anon look sane.

What is your insight? Why do they think that way?

will the Latin community in Texas be the same way?

 

[Jacob]

Trump is now favored to retain the Presidency per Vegas

 

[Mike S]

Trump is now favored to retain the Presidency per Vegas

Trump was -200 offshore a few minutes ago, but back down to -180. Biden currently +150

 

[KoD]

I'm looking at the Trump spike in Ohio and NC and really getting to the edge of my seat. Wisconsin and Michigan still red.

It's going to be a long night.

 

[Jacob]

Trump was -200 offshore a few minutes ago, but back down to -180. Biden currently +150

Yeah it swung pretty hard quickly, I saw it up to -270 at Bovado, back to -230 now.

I'm feeling pretty good about the map I posted earlier. I like Trump's odds in Ohio/NC/FL/GA/TX/AZ, but I'm not sure he'll win any of the rust belt states he needs.

 

[Mike S]

-251 for Trump
+200 for Biden

 

[gangstonc]

-251 for Trump
+200 for Biden

I don’t bet. What does this mean?

 

[Mike S]

I don’t bet. What does this mean?

In financial terms, it means if you would have to risk $251 to win $100 if you were betting on Trump, and if you bet $100 on Biden and he won, you'd win $200(plus get your $100 back).

As a tracking tool, it means Trump is currently a pretty considerable favorite in the offshore betting market. When I started tracking about an hour ago Biden was the favorite and Trump the underdog. The bigger the "minus" number, the bigger of a favorite that person is, and the bigger the "plus" number, the bigger the under dog.

 

[Jacob]

Currently -500 Trump, +330 Biden

 

[Mike S]

Currently -500 Trump, +330 Biden

Interesting. I'm seeing Trump at -370 right now, which is still considerable.

 

[Jacob]

Interesting. I'm seeing Trump at -370 right now, which is still considerable.

I'm using Bovado, just because it was easy to find, heh. -600 Trump now

 

[Mike S]

I'm using Bovado, just because it was easy to find, heh. -600 Trump now

They might be an outlier.

They're currently showing Donald Trump -600 Joe Biden +375

 

[Jacob]

They might be an outlier.

They're currently showing Donald Trump -600 Joe Biden +375

It swung all the way up to -770, down to -410 now. Probably an overreaction to what we are seeing in NC/OH.

 

[Mike S]

It swung all the way up to -770, down to -410 now. Probably an overreaction to what we are seeing in NC/OH.

They're back in the -300's now. Everyone I'm following has Trump in that range as of this moment.

 

[Mike S]

numbers are trending back towards Biden right now, but Trump is still a heavy favorite.

 

[WesL]

What is your insight? Why do they think that way?

will the Latin community in Texas be the same way?

No it is because a good chunk of the Latinos in southern Florida comes from Cuba where socialism is not really loved. Trump and his allies have sold Biden as the socialist candidate and it seems to have worked. The Latinos in the southwestern United States is a different story, they are the ones that have battled Trump's policy and rhetoric. Those who are citizens more than likely have friends or family that aren't and they are going to vote against Trump. It is an interesting conversation point.

 

[Jacob]

No it is because a good chunk of the Latinos in southern Florida comes from Cuba where socialism is not really loved. Trump and his allies have sold Biden as the socialist candidate and it seems to have worked. The Latinos in the southwestern United States is a different story, they are the ones that have battled Trump's policy and rhetoric. Those who are citizens more than likely have friends or family that aren't and they are going to vote against Trump. It is an interesting conversation point.

Yeah they really shouldn't be lumped in together as the same "Latino" group. It's two very different cultures and groups.

 

[Mike S]

seems like things have leveled off for a few minutes with Trump in the low-to-mid -200's and Biden around +180. It will start moving again soon.

The ultimate goal for the books is to get as close to the same number of bettors on both sides as possible.

 

[Jacob]

Weird night with Arizona going to Biden. After that, back to -180 Trump +130 Biden.

 

[Mike S]

Weird night with Arizona going to Biden. After that, back to -180 Trump +130 Biden.

Yeah, Arizona really seemed to move the market.

I'm heading to bed. I wonder if we'll have a winner when I wake up at 5am???