2020 Political Thread

[gangstonc]

Im calling for an electoral tie, just because it’s 2020

 

[Mike S]

That would certainly be a YUGE victory for Biden if he gets anywhere near 53-44. That's 2 points above the RCP poll average, and would probably be a larger EC victory than what KOD posted above.

Last Rasmussen poll I saw had it Biden 48 Trump 47. Where are you seeing Biden 7?

Race narrows slightly in stable nationwide polls following final presidential debate

Biden still maintains seven-point lead.

justthenews.com

 

[Jacob]

Race narrows slightly in stable nationwide polls following final presidential debate

Biden still maintains seven-point lead.

justthenews.com

View attachment 4864

That's an RMG Research poll though, not a Rasmussen poll. Rasmussen polling has it at Biden +1 as of their most recent poll.

Does RMG Research lean right as well? I know it's the same guy that founded Rasmussen originally, but I'm not as familiar with them.

 

[Kory]

5-10 minute wait at my polling spot when I went about 30 minutes ago. Steady stream of people for sure but I seemed to have missed the big morning rush.

 

[Jacob]

Should get a pretty good idea of how the evening will go when Florida's data starts filtering in tonight.

Florida releases votes as they come in by registered party (but not the actual vote, just how the voter is registered) and Republicans should have a sizeable advantage in votes cast by registered voters, but how independents vote will determine how the state goes. Obviously how many Rs vote Biden and how many Ds vote Trump make a difference there as well, but it's likely to be a much smaller number than the millions of independent votes.

We'll likely have a pretty good idea when we start seeing the actual votes come in. If independents break pretty hard to Biden (and enough to push Florida to Biden), you can likely call tonight pretty early.

 

[KoD]

5-10 minute wait at my polling spot when I went about 30 minutes ago. Steady stream of people for sure but I seemed to have missed the big morning rush.

Hundreds and hundreds of people lined up at my polling place this morning. I decided to go back later since I had my son with me. Not sure what the wait time was but there was an outrageous amount of people there, wrapping around the front and side of the church several times over. If they all slowly walked forward continuously I figure it was at least a 40 minute wait but likely much longer.

Edit: found a tweet from somebody who posted two hours ago that they waited 4 hours to vote there.

 

[WesL]

Im calling for an electoral tie, just because it’s 2020

Strangely enough, covering 00 would be wise this year.

 

[StormStalker]

I went to vote and was not in the registry. They looked for a good 10 minutes and couldn't find me. They offered to call the registrar office but I didn't want to hold up the line so later I called to inquire about it. They couldn't find me either (I've been a registered vote for 19 years). They said I could vote provisional and go to the registrar office tomorrow to get it fixed. I decided not to since I was running low on time to get to work. The last election I voted in was for governor. So, I guess that was two years ago. The lady at the registrar's office was super helpful and friendly. I'll just have to chalk this one up as 2020 I guess.

 

[KoD]

Looks like we're seeing a much higher turnout than 2016. Usually that's a good sign for Democrats but we'll have to see how the mail-in / absentee ballot figures into everything. I know there's a lot of loud & vocal Trump supporters out there but I can't imagine over the past four years and in the midst of a public health crisis that the added enthusiasm is for the sitting president. Looking at the polls and the circumstances around the election, I'm cautiously predicting a pretty big Biden win tonight/tomorrow. Big enough of a win that it won't be widely disputed.

 

[WesL]

So other than the presidential race, what other races are you guys watching tonight. I'm thinking Lindsey Graham is beyond nervous about the outcome of the SC election. Even if he wins, I don't think it will be by much which will more than likely with another close race next time around.

 

[Evan]

 

[Evan]

I know that map may seem like a reach for some, but the continued population growth in Texas in suburban areas and the massive turnout has me convinced it will barely go Biden. By the slimmest of margins.

Likewise, I think Georgia will go blue by 1-2%. I think Iowa and Ohio are VERY close, and there's still a chance they could go Biden, but the data indicates one or both will go for Trump. I see no chance for Trump in WI, MN, or MI. Pennsylvania is going to be tight as is usual. Biden by 1-3%.

Florida is so hard to predict and my gut pushes me to say Trump, but I cannot ignore the data that shows the Democrats have about a 75% chance to flip it to Biden.

That's the quickest explanation I can give for my map. One other state I think that will be quite close is Arizona. I think Biden wins by 1-3% there as well, but I feel a little better about Biden winning AZ because polling in Arizona in recent election cycles has actually tended to underestimate Dem support.

Believe it or not, but I think Alabama and our Senate race will be a decent proxy for seeing how much support (if any) Trump has lost, and the potential trends for Democrats and Biden nationwide. If Trump underperforms in Alabama compared to 2016, I think that spells trouble for Trump in Georgia and potentially in Texas. If Jones gives Tuberville a harder fight than expected, then I also think that bodes well for Biden and the Dems. Tubby should be up by 12-14 per polling, but anything below 10 shows a decent amount of weakness.

Finally, I'm going to be watching Sumter County in Florida as well as Miami-Dade.

 

[Evan]

So other than the presidential race, what other races are you guys watching tonight. I'm thinking Lindsey Graham is beyond nervous about the outcome of the SC election. Even if he wins, I don't think it will be by much which will more than likely with another close race next time around.

Iowa Senate. Georgia's Senate races. North Carolina as well. Arizona will be interesting to see how much ticket-splitting there is there -- same, if not more, with ticket-splitting in the Michigan Senate race. Heck, Montana may end up being one of the closest Senate races of all especially if you consider recent polling and the impact of potentially record turnout.

It would be a death-knell for the GOP if they lose the Presidency and give up more than 4 Senate seats. I think Jones is absolutely a goner, but if the Dems win more than 4 of the toss-ups, especially if they end up with 6-7 flips, it is catastrophic for the GOP.

Of course we could be staring down the barrel of a catastrophic polling error instead, and Trump is re-elected and Republicans hold onto the Senate. If that happens, I'm not sure what the Democratic Party will do. It would immediately hand control to the progressive left-wing. Outside of that, I could see a potential fracturing of one or both parties and the emergence of a new center-right party offset by a hard left and hard right set of parties represented by the remnants of the GOP and Dem parties.

 

[Evan]

It's early. Like extremely early. But turnout has been historic when we factor in mail-in ballots, absentee, early voting, and in-person election day voting. High turnout is a positive factor for Democrats.

Exit polls are trash, but if they are to be believed then Biden and the Democrats are doing either as well as expected or better than expected with trends more toward the better than expected. Again, exit polls are trash. I've been looking more at party registration ballot counts in states like Florida. Hard to see a red wave at all. If Trump wins, it will be by the skin of his teeth. The early trend, however, is not good for the GOP. Not good at all.

 

[Evan]

The trends in the Florida suburbs are very good for Biden. He may not win Florida, because of the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade, but that's a minuscule fraction of the electorate nationally. Biden doing much better with white voters, especially those 65+ and with a college diploma. Also has improved modestly with white voters without a HS diploma.

The only potential red flag I've seen for Biden thus far is a slight weakness among African Americans, but it's very minute and difficult to measure from area to area.

One potential positive for Trump is that he HAD to win Florida to he elected. Win there and you survive to fight in AZ, PA, NC, etc.

 

[Evan]

Trump is in SERIOUS trouble in Ohio.

 

[KoD]

Trump is in SERIOUS trouble in Ohio.

Absolutely, the nails are close to the coffin if those numbers hold...

 

[gangstonc]

I’ve always felt Florida was a red state, but the Cuban vote surprised me big time.

 

[Evan]

Donald Trump also in serious trouble in Georgia and Texas. I will caution people, some of this depends upon the early-vote/VBM breakdown, but if the figures I'm seeing are correct then Trump is struggling big time when he MUST win Ohio and Texas if not Georgia as well.

 

[Evan]

I’ve always felt Florida was a red state, but the Cuban vote surprised me big time.

Surprised me 0%. You should see some of the WhatsApp groups. They make Q-Anon look sane.