Thunderstorm activity has increased in a more concentrated area today. Dry air, and wind shear are really at a minimum.I think there will be some organization of the disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles over the next few days. Perhaps it can get organized enough to be labeled an invest, and run other models on it.
Some models take that system to the northern Gulf Coast.There may finally be some tropical development to be concerned about for the US. GFS ensembles, CMC, EURO, and Navy showing organization of a tropical wave as it gets closer to home. 1st week of September is when I’d look for a possible impact.
There has been a good many of the GFS ensemble members showing organization in the Gulf, and at times I’ve seen the operational organize it a little. The EURO is a lot more bullish with development. Model intensity forecast are usually horrendous. I’m actually concerned that it may become more on the stronger side. It’s a strong wave, and pretty active with shower and thunderstorm activity over Lesser Antilles. I think when it gets further west, into the Gulf, and conditions become more favorable we will see it grow into a storm/hurricane.maybe finally things will get interesting out there... though I do wish more models than the Euro would develop the Gulf already
Yeah, the NHC has no set criteria when it comes to retirement. Hurricane Isaac is one of only a few multi-billion dollar storms that was not retired. It was the last hurricane I rode out in Louisiana and for a category 1, that sucker packed a punch. Likely because it stalled on the coast for about 12 hours and was strengthening at landfall.Huh. TIL that Issac isn't retired. Kind of shocking considering that 2012's rendition of it was devastating for LA.