2017 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Mike S]

Per the NHC:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center. This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday. For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

 

[South AL Wx]

Subtropical Depression One has formed. It is currently not forecast to reach subtropical storm strength:

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 40.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Could there be another invest/area of interest for April??

 

[JayF]

NOAA is hosting 4 Webinars in May for the 2017 Hurricane Season. Anyone can register.

http://www.regions.noaa.gov/secar/i...aas-2017-hurricane-season-awareness-webinars/

 

[WesL]

Good find! Sounds like something I might join up and watch.

 

[JayF]

First Webinar is tomorrow at 8 AM Central Time. Go register if you are interested in what NOAA has to say regarding the 2017 Hurricane Season.

 

[JayF]

http://www.regions.noaa.gov/secar/i...aas-2017-hurricane-season-awareness-webinars/

 

[JayF]

Very informative webinar from NOAA today. If tropical weather or weather satellites, forecasting, and weather imagery is something you are interested in, definitely go take a look at their webinar series. They have three more. I will try to post the slides from today's webinar when I can get them.

 

[Brent]

its very early, but starting to see some signs of maybe some tropical development in the vicinity of the Bahamas in the long range, and the 0z GFS tonight has a threat to the east coast at day 12, lol

The CMC and Euro have also shown signs of something brewing though not a full blown storm yet

 

[Bama Ravens]

The GFS wants to try to start a weak system up in the western Gulf this weekend, but it goes away pretty fast.

 

[Brent]

It looks like some energy winds up in the Western Gulf from TD 2-E in the EPAC, but I'm not too convinced yet on it getting beyond that

There has been somewhat consistent signals of a storm before Mid June though, and the MJO does turn favorable towards the 2nd week(which ironically I'm going out of town then so naturally something will probably form)

 

[Brent]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2017 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee
Bret bret Maria ma-REE-ah
Cindy SIN-dee Nate nait
Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya
Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP
Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh
Gert gert Sean shawn
Harvey HAR-vee Tammy TAM-ee
Irma ER-mah Vince vinss
Jose ho-ZAY Whitney WHIT-nee
Katia KAH-tyah

One tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Arlene, already formed this
year in April. The next named storm that forms this season will be
Bret.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

Beginning this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will have
the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the
threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land
areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products that previously had been issued only for
tropical cyclones. Potential tropical cyclones will share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three",
etc.).

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches
or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under
WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text products
can be found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml,
while more information about NHC graphical products can be
found at www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml.

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via
Twitter when select NHC products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[Bama Ravens]

GFS at hour 384, June 20th (lol):

 

[Mike S]

I do not like this new "potential tropical cyclone" stuff coming from the NHC. It just adds confusion. There was nothing wrong with the way it was done before.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tropics look to heat up again during the week of the 4th. The GFS has shown development in the GOM for several runs, and has moved it forward in time. Fair amount of ensemble support too.

 

[Brent]

I do not like this new "potential tropical cyclone" stuff coming from the NHC. It just adds confusion. There was nothing wrong with the way it was done before.

Definitely not the biggest fan either, and the little group of weather friends I was talking to on Facebook was pretty much lost and confused too... not the greatest thing ever at least not yet.

I was really high on the idea on paper in the off season(for the invests that take forever to develop and you just know they'll threaten land), but this was kind of weird.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

In the long range, around the 15th, the GFS spins up low-level vorticity at 50W 10N, and it looks like environmental conditions improve for development in the Caribbean. It'll be interesting to see what comes of this time frame, and further on. I've seen several GFS ensemble members show a rather robust storm threatening the US.

 

[Brent]

12z GFS has a major hurricane at day 9 near the Lesser Antilles lol

Has a hurricane landfall on the Florida Peninsula in 2 weeks...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Stronger earlier in time this run than the last. The disturbance has looked healthy over Africa the past few nights.

 

[Brent]

18z GFS blows up in the Eastern Caribbean then is much weaker and hangs around Hispanola and Cuba then blows up into a major in the Eastern Gulf and hits the Panhandle on day 16