2/10/2020-2/12/2020 Severe Weather and Flooding Threat

[TCLwx]

TDS on the Jackson storm.

Yep. Pretty obvious CC hit, but it went away after one scan.

 

[TCLwx]

SPC has taken the Enhanced Risk totally out of the Day 2 Outlook.

 

[Kory]

Nothing like waking up to the emergency alert tone for a flash flood warning. Great way to start your day all panicked.

 

[TCLwx]

Nothing like waking up to the emergency alert tone for a flash flood warning. Great way to start your day all panicked.

Not to turn this into the Tuscaloosa rain thread, but we are sitting at a storm total of 6.83”. Just an insane amount of water.

 

[Kory]

SPC has taken the Enhanced Risk totally out of the Day 2 Outlook.
View attachment 2479

Mid level temps are torching. That is going to stunt updrafts a good bit.

 

[Kory]

I do want to clarify. There will be severe wx tomorrow. But I think the magnitude and intensity will be limited. We will need instability to sustain these updrafts in a highly sheared environment otherwise they will get torn apart.

12z long range HRRR doesn’t have a bad looking warm sector tomorrow afternoon. But weak lapse rates will plague this system.

 

[Kory]

Pretty sure we’ve had measurable rain in Tuscaloosa every hour since 5am yesterday. And it’s still raining....

 

[David in SW Blount]

My area was in the zone projected to really get slammed with heavy rainfall on Monday, but we "only" received about 2.5 inches. Last week we had about 5 inches, though.

 

[pritchlaw]

My area was in the zone projected to really get slammed with heavy rainfall on Monday, but we "only" received about 2.5 inches. Last week we had about 5 inches, though.

I live at Mountain Woods Lake and it did seem like we had lots of periods where it wasn't raining during this time. We got lucky.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Given the lack of posts today, it seems no one is overly concerned about the severe weather threat for tonight.

 

[bwalk]

The focus on the rain and flooding, along w/ the severe weather risk not being until Wednesday night, has caused any emphasis on severe weather to be kind of forgotten.

The dynamics for severe weather with this system seem limited. Lapse rates and instability seem the key limiting features. The fact that the severe storms will not affect central Alabama until after midnight (when everyone is asleep) has also caused many of us to consider this event as not very relevant.

Someone with better forecasting skills than me can give us the more advanced details as far as the dynamics of the possible severe setup.
Of course, my local TV met mentioned the word "tornado" at least 5 times in his weather segment on the news last night. Hype train city.

 

[Jetstream]

A warm 73 degrees and sun mix.

 

[Kory]

Tornado warning in South MS. If we get anything it’ll likely be out of that prefrontal band...

 

[Bama Ravens]

So this line that is already moving into eastern MS, is it the main like or are we still looking at an overnight threat? If it is the main line, it seems to be way ahead of schedule.

 

[Kory]

So this line that is already moving into eastern MS, is it the main like or are we still looking at an overnight threat? If it is the main line, it seems to be way ahead of schedule.

Yeah it’s definitely sped up.

A few kinks in the line are looking suspicious but nothing bad just yet.

 

[mbrewer]

Tornado warning in South MS. If we get anything it’ll likely be out of that prefrontal band...

I'm sure they have access to better data than I do at the moment, but I don't think that warning will help LIX's False Alarm Ratio.

 

[Kory]

I'm sure they have access to better data than I do at the moment, but I don't think that warning will help LIX's False Alarm Ratio.

They warn a lot of garbage down there.

 

[Bama Ravens]

They warn a lot of garbage down there.

Pretty sure NWS Jackson, MS also has a bad false alarm ratio. Many times they'll have a storm tornado warned all the way to the AL line and then BMX doesn't continue it into AL.

 

[Bama Ravens]

New BMX graphic reflects the speed up of the line:

 

[KoD]

Very cloudy afternoon for much of the central and eastern US.


We've come a long way since the early GOES satellites.

I didn't expect there to be so many (albeit small) hail signatures on the line in MS.