2/10/2020-2/12/2020 Severe Weather and Flooding Threat (1 Viewer)


Kory

Member
Messages
3,802
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I do want to clarify. There will be severe wx tomorrow. But I think the magnitude and intensity will be limited. We will need instability to sustain these updrafts in a highly sheared environment otherwise they will get torn apart.

12z long range HRRR doesn’t have a bad looking warm sector tomorrow afternoon. But weak lapse rates will plague this system.
 

pritchlaw

Member
Messages
42
Location
Warrior, AL
My area was in the zone projected to really get slammed with heavy rainfall on Monday, but we "only" received about 2.5 inches. Last week we had about 5 inches, though.
I live at Mountain Woods Lake and it did seem like we had lots of periods where it wasn't raining during this time. We got lucky.
 

bwalk

Member
Messages
268
Location
North Prattville, Al
The focus on the rain and flooding, along w/ the severe weather risk not being until Wednesday night, has caused any emphasis on severe weather to be kind of forgotten.

The dynamics for severe weather with this system seem limited. Lapse rates and instability seem the key limiting features. The fact that the severe storms will not affect central Alabama until after midnight (when everyone is asleep) has also caused many of us to consider this event as not very relevant.

Someone with better forecasting skills than me can give us the more advanced details as far as the dynamics of the possible severe setup.
Of course, my local TV met mentioned the word "tornado" at least 5 times in his weather segment on the news last night. :rolleyes: Hype train city.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
3,802
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
So this line that is already moving into eastern MS, is it the main like or are we still looking at an overnight threat? If it is the main line, it seems to be way ahead of schedule.
Yeah it’s definitely sped up.

A few kinks in the line are looking suspicious but nothing bad just yet.
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
2020 Supporter
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
976
Location
Huntsville, AL
Very cloudy afternoon for much of the central and eastern US.
20200432146_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-1250x750.jpg

We've come a long way since the early GOES satellites.

I didn't expect there to be so many (albeit small) hail signatures on the line in MS.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top