• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX 1/24/21-1/26/21 Severe Event (Fultondale, AL)

Looking at an overnight threat in north Texas DFW metro area.



The latest model HRRR run at 12z slowed the arrival of storms slightly by an hour and is now popping up a row of storms around the metroplex. Tornado chances stand at 2% currently but I wouldn’t want those to get any higher (personally).
 
It looks like one storm moving into the NE TX/SW AK radar hole. SVR warned currently, but a little bit of rotation evident on the lowest elevation scan out of KFWS which is still 12kft high.
 
So the hi-res support came in this morning, and this setup is all of a sudden saying "Call an ambulance, but not for me"

There seems to be just enough curvature in the flow aloft from I-20 north now that storms might actually be able to get rooted.. and suddenly this is what we're dealing with..


1611586033903.png
 
Here's our issue.. the models had progged the flow over AL to be anticyclonic for the last several days, but now that we're on the day of they're coming around to neutral to even slightly cyclonic, especially along and north of I-20.

The only thing missing from this system was the dynamic support that cyclonic flow brings us.. and now it appears that there might be JUST enough dynamic support to allow deep convection to establish. If that deep convection establishes, it has everything else it needs to become a problem for somebody across the state tonight.

1611590683872.png
 
image3.png
 
HRRR at zero hour is running a good 3-5F too low with temperatures across northwest AL. Thermos are wholesale being undersold in the warm sector. With the lift Jon B talked about above, this has all the makings over a sneaky overperformer, and given the more cellular storm mode coupled with the steep mid-level lapse rates and the cold upper-level temps, that's not good at all.
 
I'm at 70° here and the sun is breaking out. Very strong gusts are knocking stuff around on the porch. Not the best day to acclimate some plants to the outdoors, it turns out.
 
1611607147302.png

Memphis VAD with 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH should any of those storms developing to the south tap into it. Mesoanalysis suggests 1000 MLCAPE and mid 60s dewpoints nosing into the area.
 
Getting high dews that far up is alarming. Looking to have the makings of an overperformer for sure.

I'm at 71/63 with breaks of sun still
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top