• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX 1/24/21-1/26/21 Severe Event (Fultondale, AL)

Bevo

Member
Messages
241
Reaction score
201
Location
Dallas, TX
Looking at an overnight threat in north Texas DFW metro area.



The latest model HRRR run at 12z slowed the arrival of storms slightly by an hour and is now popping up a row of storms around the metroplex. Tornado chances stand at 2% currently but I wouldn’t want those to get any higher (personally).
 

MattW

Member
Messages
307
Reaction score
206
Location
Decatur, GA
HAM Callsign
KG4GUF
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
It looks like one storm moving into the NE TX/SW AK radar hole. SVR warned currently, but a little bit of rotation evident on the lowest elevation scan out of KFWS which is still 12kft high.
 

rolltide_130

Member
Messages
828
Reaction score
378
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
So the hi-res support came in this morning, and this setup is all of a sudden saying "Call an ambulance, but not for me"

There seems to be just enough curvature in the flow aloft from I-20 north now that storms might actually be able to get rooted.. and suddenly this is what we're dealing with..


1611586033903.png
 

rolltide_130

Member
Messages
828
Reaction score
378
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Here's our issue.. the models had progged the flow over AL to be anticyclonic for the last several days, but now that we're on the day of they're coming around to neutral to even slightly cyclonic, especially along and north of I-20.

The only thing missing from this system was the dynamic support that cyclonic flow brings us.. and now it appears that there might be JUST enough dynamic support to allow deep convection to establish. If that deep convection establishes, it has everything else it needs to become a problem for somebody across the state tonight.

1611590683872.png
 

Bama Ravens

Member
Messages
1,207
Reaction score
649
Location
Morris, AL (Northern Jefferson County)
image3.png
 

Fred Gossage

Member
Meteorologist
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
596
Reaction score
2,096
Location
Florence, AL
HRRR at zero hour is running a good 3-5F too low with temperatures across northwest AL. Thermos are wholesale being undersold in the warm sector. With the lift Jon B talked about above, this has all the makings over a sneaky overperformer, and given the more cellular storm mode coupled with the steep mid-level lapse rates and the cold upper-level temps, that's not good at all.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
And so it begins. Definitely feels like severe out.
 

StormStalker

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
564
Reaction score
430
Location
Tuscumbia, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Its very muggy here, despite the clouds we have reached the lower 70s.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
I'm at 70° here and the sun is breaking out. Very strong gusts are knocking stuff around on the porch. Not the best day to acclimate some plants to the outdoors, it turns out.
 

andyhb

Member
Messages
1,035
Reaction score
2,699
Location
Norman, OK
1611607147302.png

Memphis VAD with 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH should any of those storms developing to the south tap into it. Mesoanalysis suggests 1000 MLCAPE and mid 60s dewpoints nosing into the area.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
3,290
Reaction score
3,368
Location
Jasper, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Getting high dews that far up is alarming. Looking to have the makings of an overperformer for sure.

I'm at 71/63 with breaks of sun still
 
Back
Top