We still get a northerly surface low track, even on the op GFS now, but everything is definitely flat. There's either straight or slightly anticyclonic flow over a large portion of the warm sector. Doesn't mean we can't have severe or tornadic storms, but it definitely puts a lid on the ceiling for this.Annnnnnnnnd everything comes in flat/sheared out at 00z. Lol.
I don't think there's a way for us to not deal with the straight jet synoptic look with this, but now even the operational GFS has caved toward having a deeper surface low on a track farther north, with a large EML overtop the warm sector, and quality instability (by winter standards) in place. I think the straight jet and lack of better cyclonic vorticity advection and better height falls over the warm sector limits this event in scope by number of storms... but I'm not sure it does much at all to limit intensity of the few storms that may form. The environment Monday will likely be supportive of significant tornadoes. It's a matter of getting a couple of storms to sustain themselves long enough in that environment. I don't think we will have many of them, but I can't imagine us not having at least two or three.
There may be a few strong storms on Sunday in north to northeast TX. SPC has an outlook for out there. The Monday risk looks like a general MS/AL/TN ordeal, maybe leaking over into portions of surrounding states.Where is this likely to happen and when? Me, the wife, and the kids live just north of Austin but I have family in Smithville, Mississippi and Alabama. I try to keep an eye on everything after April 2011.
Looks like the arklatex region over to east there Mississippi Alabama . Gfs has slp further north. Wouldn’t be suprise southern section Tennessee even.Where is this likely to happen and when? Me, the wife, and the kids live just north of Austin but I have family in Smithville, Mississippi and Alabama. I try to keep an eye on everything after April 2011.
I think the risk extends to the Kentucky state line on Monday. The GFS was the only one not getting the warm sector that far north, and it has now caved for more than one run.Looks like the arklatex region over to east there Mississippi Alabama . Gfs has slp further north. Wouldn’t be suprise southern section Tennessee even.
Our local forecast has dropped the 50's highs and 30-40's lows for 60's and 70's highs for the coming week. I don't know how much that might affect this system but when we move to that weather this early it tends to help trigger any storm system especially if it's still cold north of TexasI think the risk extends to the Kentucky state line on Monday. The GFS was the only one not getting the warm sector that far north, and it has now caved for more than one run.
That may be happening early month if some of the latest guidance has the right idea bout Canada over to Greenland and then how the polar jet plays out. We're starting the breakdown of the -NAO now by pinching off that ridge over Greenland and retrograding it into Canada. It dies with time from there. By 10 days from now, all blocking is gone, and the Pacific jet is showing its @$$....I do still think that tomorrow across TX and NE into SE OK/NW AR could be a potentially active event. It's just not going to translate very well eastward at this point in the game.
A lot of the ingredients this trough has (Cold UL temperatures, strong EML advection, etc) are going to be present for the majority of systems this spring.. it's just a matter of when does the -NAO and undercutting troughs in the Atlantic diminish and allow these systems to translate further east without getting sheared apart? I imagine by the latter half of February we'll start to see signs of that beginning to occur as we begin to transition into spring.