O boy..... If into that thread you go, only pain and suffering will you find.....
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
I don't think that's the same tornado, the other one is stout and a lot like the other intense tornadoes Illinois has seen this summer.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
That is the same one. rated EF0. It had that look before dissipating on Connor's stream.
joshoctober16
Member
Supercell near a New brunswick Radar right now , rotation is picking up , moving north , wierd spot to see.
joshoctober16
Member
shockingly your not looking at a pileus but a velum cloud
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulonimbus_velum
Pileus tend to be a Altocumulus lenticularis on top of the cloud that then quickly vanishes once the storm cloud bust through it
Velum tend to be a altostratus cloud that unlike pileus tends to stay around the storm even when the storm went through it.
Kds86z
Member
Frustration builds in US city struggling without power for 12 days
In the town of Gary, where a third of residents live in poverty, people say they have been living in "survival mode".
www.bbc.com
Interesting signal on the Day 6 CIPS. Random little 45% nipple. Definitely don't see those probabilities this far out very often.
This is a day that has also looked quite interesting on the GEFS ensemble SCP for a dozen or so runs now. The latest run has more certainty on location, but less certainty about the actual existence of a severe weather threat, with multiple members now showing nothing at all. Similar nipple presentation on the mean SCP.
This is a day that has also looked quite interesting on the GEFS ensemble SCP for a dozen or so runs now. The latest run has more certainty on location, but less certainty about the actual existence of a severe weather threat, with multiple members now showing nothing at all. Similar nipple presentation on the mean SCP.
Day 7 looks much more interesting in terms of tornado. Some very eyebrow raising sheer profiles over Eastern Iowa/Illinois.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Is this sarcasm? This is a capped out parameter space, and there's no storm motion either on the hodograph!
joshoctober16
Member
yeah its too capped , however there are instances that could do it with almost the same amount of capping as long as the MLCIN is not lower then -500 (or higher , Example -501) and if the MLCAPE is at 1500 as well as the LR 0-3 at over 8 , however its not at that level for LR so it wouldn't work. but then again the convective temperature is at a insane high.
Gotta watch those 45% Nipples...... LOL!
We should get a more active Fall severe weather season. No one is questioning that. However, it's just how active from a tornadic perspective will it be is the question. Let's take a look at that. These are the total tornadoes for the state of MS during El Nino years. I looked at our most active months (October, Nov, Dec, March, April, and May). Basically, Fall and Spring. Based on this, Mississippi sees less tornadoes (only 164 or 9%) during very strong El Ninos than Strong/Mod with most occurring during Weak (859 or 48%). Now, why would that be? The answer: because of your strong subtropical jet which is why the Gulf Coast and Florida sees more tornadic activity than further inland due to more flooding rains/overcast conditions. It makes perfect sense too if you think about it. I just did Mississippi, but I would imagine Alabama is pretty much the same.
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Interestingly, Virginia, Florida, and Louisiana seem to have pretty notable tornado activity during strong El Ninos. Though overall it kinda seems like they actually trigger tornado activity across the board.
What are the columns here? Is the 3rd column Fall tornadoes?
The numbers beside the Type of ENSO column are the combined totals for the 2 years (51-52) for October, Nov, Dec, March, April, and May. The combined total as in Oct, Nov, Dec, Mar, April, and May. Then I got the grand total when I added those up. The color coded wording, numbers, and percentages is where I just reordered them in order (Weak to Very Strong ENSO).
Evidence of this occuring was back in 2016. We had the Appomattox EF3 and we also had the outbreak in April that produced multiple sig tornadoes including the Elon EF3 that tracked literally the neighborhood next to me.
tennessee storm chaser
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Ryan hall has put out a map of his December or late fall weather prediction fwiw… says tornado activity going be high over areas Midsouth into the lower miss valley regions
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