• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2026

O boy..... If into that thread you go, only pain and suffering will you find.....
 
Rare iridescent pileus in Nebraska on Stormrunner's feed.
shockingly your not looking at a pileus but a velum cloud

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulonimbus_velum

Pileus tend to be a Altocumulus lenticularis on top of the cloud that then quickly vanishes once the storm cloud bust through it

Velum tend to be a altostratus cloud that unlike pileus tends to stay around the storm even when the storm went through it.
 
Interesting signal on the Day 6 CIPS. Random little 45% nipple. Definitely don't see those probabilities this far out very often.

This is a day that has also looked quite interesting on the GEFS ensemble SCP for a dozen or so runs now. The latest run has more certainty on location, but less certainty about the actual existence of a severe weather threat, with multiple members now showing nothing at all. Similar nipple presentation on the mean SCP.

1787614442837.png1787614640478.png1787614675489.png
 
Day 7 looks much more interesting in terms of tornado. Some very eyebrow raising sheer profiles over Eastern Iowa/Illinois.

1787614951678.png
 
Is this sarcasm? This is a capped out parameter space, and there's no storm motion either on the hodograph!
yeah its too capped , however there are instances that could do it with almost the same amount of capping as long as the MLCIN is not lower then -500 (or higher , Example -501) and if the MLCAPE is at 1500 as well as the LR 0-3 at over 8 , however its not at that level for LR so it wouldn't work. but then again the convective temperature is at a insane high.
 
Interesting signal on the Day 6 CIPS. Random little 45% nipple. Definitely don't see those probabilities this far out very often.

This is a day that has also looked quite interesting on the GEFS ensemble SCP for a dozen or so runs now. The latest run has more certainty on location, but less certainty about the actual existence of a severe weather threat, with multiple members now showing nothing at all. Similar nipple presentation on the mean SCP.

View attachment 54728View attachment 54729View attachment 54730
Gotta watch those 45% Nipples...... LOL!
 
Back
Top