Archive Former Hurricane Nate

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Brent, Oct 3, 2017.

  1. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Looks like we'll have some kind of storm in the Gulf this weekend, models are clustered between Central LA and the FL Panhandle
     
  2. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Yeah, forward speed and land interaction is going to determine if it follows the left or right side of guidance. Euro/Ukmet is slower, thus more east toward Panama City Beach. Faster solution with the GFS is more toward SELA. I'd take a blend of the two for now until we get a center fix (later today) and this consolidates into a tighter storm versus a monsoonal gyre. But don't be surprised if we have a minimal hurricane in the Gulf this weekend...

    This is will a very lopsided storm with most of the action to the east. A Ukmet/Euro track would mean minimal effects to AL and points west, outside the very SE portion of the state. An approaching trough will increase shear across the storm in the Gulf and allow for dry air entrainment.

    We've been quite dry in AL for the past few weeks. Could use some rain.
     
  3. Jacob

    Jacob Member

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    Not trying to be nitpicky, but the GFS and Euro are almost the same timing wise. Landfall within 6 hours or so of each other. The real difference seems to come from how much different the two are handling the trough digging into the plains. Euro digs the initial trough into the plains/midwest much more at 72-84 hours, which beats back the ridge to the east of the system a bit and allows the more easterly path.
     
  4. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    TD 16 coming
     
  5. Kory

    Kory Member

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    I was looking at 00z data for both models and the GFS looked a bit faster to me. Allowed it to get further NW before the curve. No need to worry about being nitpicky. Always good to have another interpretation.

    Another key factor seems to be the handling of the Bahamas disturbance. So far, it seem the Euro is really on its own with regards to leaving a weakness versus other models keeping the ridging stronger over FL/GA for the weekend time frame. Hard to bet against the Euro...
     
  6. Kory

    Kory Member

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    NHC first track gives huge weight to the Euro. Completely discounts the GFS.
     
  7. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    [​IMG]
     
  8. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo .... I'm over this hurricane season already! Living in Atlanta, I never thought I'd have to do any storm prep ....and this will be twice in one year.

    Go away, Nate!
     
  9. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    Next intermediate in just about 20 minutes. Wonder if we'll have Nate by then. Looking at their cone graphic, it sure does look that way.
     
  10. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Still TD16

    2:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4

    Location: 12.3°N 82.3°W
    Moving: NW at 7 mph
    Min pressure: 1005 mb
    Max sustained: 35 mph
     
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  11. Destin Native

    Destin Native Member

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    I'm with you! We are near Valdosta and own a place in Keaton Beach, FL (near Steinhatchee), I'm sick of cleaning up tree debris. Plus, my husband works for Georgia Power Co he's sick of it too....
     
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  12. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    I feel certain both of you are ...and thankful for him for all he does.

    Hopefully this one just doesn't develop as they're currently saying.
     
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  13. Jacob

    Jacob Member

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    Latest Euro brings it in as a strong Cat 2-ish near Panama City Sunday night/Monday morning.
     
  14. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Interesting Development. Looks like Rain and wind this weekend.
     
  15. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    That's my concern, without so much land mass to kill it, like Irma. Ugh
     
  16. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    Are there any models that bring Nate to Category 3 status before landfall?
     
  17. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Not at the moment.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    GFS vs. Euro - Wow, what a difference!
    upload_2017-10-4_16-48-3.png
     

    Attached Files:

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  19. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    5 pm looks a bit different than the 11 am. <sigh>

    [​IMG]
     
  20. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    Quite a substantial shift overnight. Looks like Euro agrees with GFS now.
    [​IMG]
     

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