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Severe Weather Threat - June 11th-15th, 2023

TornadoFan said:
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"DISCUSSION...OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES, TWO SUPERCELLS ACROSS BAKER
AND LEE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN GA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A FEW REPORTS OF TORNADOES.
LOCATED ALONG A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT, A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR
OF HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE EVOLVING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. BACKED SURFACE FLOW ENHANCING 0-1 KM SRH
(150-200 M2/S2) IS HELPING TO SUPPORT STP VALUES OF 3 TO 4 ALONG THE
EAT-WEST ORIENTED FRONT. FAVORABLE STORM MOTIONS WILL KEEP THESE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS, A LOCALLY HIGHER RISK FOR
TORNADOES (SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG) MAY EVOLVE WITH THESE STORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS."
 
the northern cell looks like it might split the uprights between Arabi and Ashburn (home of the fire ant festival!) which is good, the southern one might move right into Sylvester though
 
Argus said:
Is the storm threat going to shift north or south this week? Does the axis of severe weather threaten more of north Georgia later in the week or move south?
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No expertise here, but NWSGSP which covers NW GA is basically saying nothing big happens till 00Z Friday, then it will depend on conditions.
 
..20Z UPDATE


..ARKLATEX INTO GA

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
MLU (IN NORTHEAST LA) VICINITY EASTWARD TO NEAR MGM (IN CENTRAL AL)
AND THEN MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTH OF TLH (IN THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE). MOST OF THE ONGOING STORMS ARE JUST NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, INCLUDING THE FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST GA.
THIS AREA WAS ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 1043, WHICH MENTIONS
THAT A CORRIDOR OF GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE EVOLVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA. LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG)
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTHERN LA HAS SHOWN A TREND
TOWARDS MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION/UPSCALE GROWTH, WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY PROVIDING A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WIND THREAT INTO CENTRAL MS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #293, WHICH CONTAINS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WORDING,
WAS RECENTLY ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.

SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS (I.E. ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL), WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL. GIVEN THE
ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG/EXTREME BUOYANCY, THE SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS
WELL.
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new d1 echoes the recurring sentiments from the past couple of hours
 
Surprised to see that much clearing over parts of C/N AL.
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