Severe Weather Threat - June 11th-15th, 2023

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[KevinH]

 

[JPWX]

Someone is gonna get upgraded to a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall during the upcoming week if this 7-day rainfall total verifies. My best guess would be North MS down into parts of Central MS and east into North/Central Alabama.

 

[JBishopwx]

Someone is gonna get upgraded to a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall during the upcoming week if this 7-day rainfall total verifies. My best guess would be North MS down into parts of Central MS and east into North/Central Alabama.

And just to note, areas SW of Clarksdale already receive 3+ inches today.

 

[JPWX]

And just to note, areas SW of Clarksdale already receive 3+ inches today.

Which is not surprising when looking at the current PWAT values in that area which is around 1.90 inches.

 

[MichelleH]

Anyone want to help me and give a best estimate of when the rain will make it to Cullman? Trying to finish a wrestling show and playing beat the clock. Thanks!

 

[JBishopwx]

Anyone want to help me and give a best estimate of when the rain will make it to Cullman? Trying to finish a wrestling show and playing beat the clock. Thanks!

I say at least 20-45 minutes. Currently just entered Winston County.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Monday afternoon/eve in north Texas.

00z HRRR


3KM NAM


EURO


Tornadic directional and speed shear

 

[Equus]

Can't say I fully expected to be in an enhanced already

 

[Clancy]

Can't say I fully expected to be in an enhanced already

View attachment 20487

Woke up to thunder here, and was shocked to see the ENH all the way over here in ATL!

 

[Gawxnative]

Woke up to thunder here, and was shocked to see the ENH all the way over here in ATL!

Well "wave 1" came through here in last 30 minutes (near Monroe) with pretty stout thunder few gusts and about 3/4 inch of rain . Next "wave" looks to be in about hour or so away.

 

[Clancy]

NAM 3km for late Tuesday near Clanton, AL is interesting.

 

[JPWX]

NAM 3km for late Tuesday near Clanton, AL is interesting.
View attachment 20488

Ummm.... WOW!

 

[Equus]

Will have to be on the watch to see if there's any discrete development this afternoon with an environment favorable for downbursts and hail. The new greenhouse does not look forward to the second round with bowing segments after dark. If we're doing the intense MCS thing, at least gimme a daytime QLCS so there is a visible shelf cloud; alas, nocturnal severe is the rule

 

[Clancy]

Watch likely soon for parts of TN/KY/AR and the MO Bootheel.

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to develop by 20Z
from western Kentucky and Tennessee into northeast Arkansas.
Scattered wind damage and sporadic hail will be possible.

DISCUSSION...An initial wave is currently moving across southern IL
into IN, with an associated area of showers and thunderstorms. These
storms extend from a surface low near the IL/IN border, curving
southwestward toward the MO/AR border. Shear remains weak over
northern areas, with the stronger midlevel flow south of the OH
River and into AR.

Heating continues to gradually destabilize the air mass ahead of the
initial wave, with MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg over KY and TN.
Stronger instability exists over AR, where temperatures are warmer.

Visible imagery shows Cu fields from KY into TN, while surface
observations indicate the strongest convergence from northeast AR
into western KY. This general zone may be the most likely zone for
diurnal development later today.

Winds aloft are generally averaging 30-40 kt, with speeds
approaching 50 kt at 500 mb noted on HPX/OHX/LVX VWPs. This will
support deep-layer shear favorable for a few long-lived storms,
possible a mixture of cellular and linear storm modes, moving
southeastward later today and into the evening. Scattered damaging
winds appear to be the main concern, with sporadic large hail
possible as well as midlevel temperatures remain cool and the air
mass destabilizes further.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 974

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Clancy]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch now out.

 

[Clancy]

Surprise tornado in northern TN.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The morning HREF hazard guidance, CSU-MLP along with mesoanalysis were all indicators that the tornado threat had increased substantially for that area. Well beyond that of a 2% risk.

 

[buckeye05]

Tipp City, OH may have just been hit for the second year in a row

 

[Clancy]

New watch forthcoming for TN/AL/GA triple-point.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 982

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov