Severe Weather Threat - June 11th-15th, 2023

[Clancy]

Insane look near Blakely.

 

[Richardjacks]

Now looks like the bow will stay north of Bham. Upper winds seem to be veering more westerly now

 

[Clancy]

Large TDS now.

 

[TH2002]

Good God, massive TDS blowup

 

[TornadoFan]

PDS tornado warning on it now.

 

[warneagle]

The only good news is that it's moving away from populated areas now, not much ahead of it for the next ~40 miles. Hopefully it didn't produce until after it passed Blakely.

 

[Clancy]

Relatively sparse population there but anyone caught in this is in huge trouble. Got some family down that way.

 

[keithGA]

That couplet is intense.

 

[warneagle]

Pretty clear debris ball on reflectivity.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wind on that storm near Smoke Rise has picked up substantially. MPING report just came in of snapped and or uprooted trees.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

New WW possible to the N/E of existing ones.

Areas affected...Portions of north/central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141834Z - 142030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and perhaps some damaging winds
may exist to the north of Tornado Watch 292. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Some supercell splits have recently been noted across
parts of west-central GA. One such left split is on track towards
Peachtree City GA and the south Atlanta metro. Convective mode is
starting to become a little more messy, with multiple thunderstorm
interactions occurring along and northeast of a convectively
reinforced surface boundary. Still, with 1500-2000 MUCAPE present
and ample deep-layer shear to support supercells and clusters, there
will probably be some threat for large hail and strong/damaging
winds to the north of Tornado Watch 292. Trends will be monitored
for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance to the north of WW
292 to account for this hail/wind threat.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

 

[Clancy]

Small cell E of Midway, AL is spinning intensely.

 

[OHWX97]

Arlington, GA cell appears to be cycling and getting ready to drop another tornado.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Reflectivity signature tilted about 90 degrees to the right of what you normally expect, but still moving east. Forward-flank precip core tracks to the south of the tornado path instead of ahead or north of it. Just bizarre, but I remember this occurring with some supercells in Wisconsin with an event in August, 2021.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[Clancy]

The seedling cells in Central Alabama may be ones that will need careful watching as the afternoon progresses.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[cincywx]

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM
UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL CLUSTER IS EVOLVING INTO A BOW ECHO ALONG THE
LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS BORDER, AND THIS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A DERECHO-PRODUCING EVENT IS PROBABLE WITH
INTENSE DAMAGING WIND SWATHS UP TO 90 MPH. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
POSE A THREAT FOR 1.5-3 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, AND EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

 

[Clancy]

PDS severe thunderstorm watch. Pretty rare, especially down here.

Edit: Hold on, what are these probs?

 

[cincywx]

90/90 wind probs