Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[vanni9283]

Well the Covington tornado was 2000 yards wide. The widest tornado of this outbreak.

That's over a mile wide!!!

 

[TH2002]

Most of these tornadoes weren’t long-tracked (PLs of ≥ 25 mi). Of the 38+ significant (EF2+) tornadoes, only five were long-tracked. By contrast, 4 May 2003 featured 25 F2+ events, of which 17 were long-trackers. Most of the high-end outbreaks tend to feature a higher proportion of long-tracked EF2+ tornadoes than occurred in this event. (As an extreme example, 27 Apr 2011 featured 25 EF2+ long-trackers.) Obviously, this past outbreak was still a relatively extreme event, but in terms of intense long-trackers it doesn’t stand out especially. A lot of intense short-trackers, certainly...

(Trying to be as constructive as possible...)

Not sure what map you're looking at but May 4, 2003 had seven long-tracked (going by the same ≥ 25 mi definition) tornadoes, not 17. Also not sure what you're trying to prove, but if it's your climate change theory I have to say I will disagree with anyone who jumps to the conclusion that climate change is already having an impact on tornado outbreaks, whether they say it's increasing or decreasing their frequency/intensity. Jumping to one conclusion or the other based on only a decade or so of data is flipping two sides of the same coin...

And for the record, even outbreaks like May 3-4, 1999 didn't have "exceptional" numbers of long tracked tornadoes. Using the same logic that you're applying to 3/31/2023 that would make it much less significant from a historical standpoint, and we all know doing so is bogus.

 

[pohnpei]

Not sure if anyone posted before but this video had a good capture of the peak intensity of keota EF4 later part of the footage.

This one had a good capture of the early portion of martinburg tornado.

 

[A Guy]

(Trying to be as constructive as possible...)

Not sure what map you're looking at but May 4, 2003 had seven long-tracked (going by the same ≥ 25 mi definition) tornadoes, not 17.

He's counted the significant long-trackers for the whole 9 days of the outbreak sequence.

 

[Casuarina Head]

He's counted the significant long-trackers for the whole 9 days of the outbreak sequence.

Yes, I stand corrected. I meant EF2+ long-trackers for the entire sequence.

It’s all part of some kind of narrative being pushed by that particular person that climate change has rendered the big tornado outbreaks of the past essentially extinct.

I’ll readily admit to this, in part because I am personally tired of AGW-related hysteria (that tries to “prove” that AGW increases the incidence of severe weather, when evidence, in my view, points to the opposite).

 

[Casuarina Head]

If it’s not the top 1% of top 1% of outbreaks, it wasn’t really an outbreak per that logic lol

That’s a bit of an exaggeration. I still said that the outbreak was a “relatively extreme” event, not a nonevent.

 

[A Guy]

I’ll readily admit to this, in part because I am personally tired of AGW-related hysteria (that tries to “prove” that AGW increases the incidence of severe weather, when evidence, in my view, points to the opposite).

Isn't the best solution just to keep the chatter out of these threads then? I have my own personal views that aren't far off yours, but it's very near the bottom of the things I want to talk about. Being someone who is mainly interested in the physical and historical aspects of tornadoes (though I confess to not understanding the synoptic-scale meteorology much despite looking at it for a decade) seeing these things and the inevitable arguments they cause makes me wince.

 

[cincywx]

based on preliminary data, in a 17 hour span of 1900z fri to 1200z sat, there were at least 108 tornadoes, with at least 38 of them being significant (ef2+).

 

[ColdFront]

Yes, I stand corrected. I meant EF2+ long-trackers for the entire sequence.


I’ll readily admit to this, in part because I am personally tired of AGW-related hysteria (that tries to “prove” that AGW increases the incidence of severe weather, when evidence, in my view, points to the opposite).

And yet, you continue, after the people that do this for a living, and professionally I might add, have told you that you are not correct.

This performance is all part of some kind of narrative/climate crusade you are on.

 

[Clancy]

And yet, you continue, after the people that do this for a living, and professionally I might add, have told you that you are not correct.

This performance is all part of some kind of narrative/climate crusade you are on.

They have readily admitted to this several times, and stated in their climate-change thread that they will continue to do so regardless.
Pro-tip: The less you engage with it, the better.

 

[ColdFront]

They have readily admitted to this several times, and stated in their climate-change thread that they will continue to do so regardless.
Pro-tip: The less you engage with it, the better.

You’re right, my apologies for feeding it. The ignore button is there for a reason

 

[Clancy]

You’re right, my apologies for feeding it. The ignore button is there for a reason

It happens, don't fret too much over it. In the end, it's for your own sanity's sake as much as anyone else's

 

[TornadoFan]

How long has it been since we've seen an outbreak this massive?

 

[TH2002]

Yes, I stand corrected. I meant EF2+ long-trackers for the entire sequence.


I’ll readily admit to this, in part because I am personally tired of AGW-related hysteria (that tries to “prove” that AGW increases the incidence of severe weather, when evidence, in my view, points to the opposite).

Using May 2003 as a benchmark for what tornado outbreaks "used to be" before climate change allegedly rendered them obsolete isn't fair because you're comparing an entire month to a single day, and 4/2003 was literally the most active month on record before 2011. Events like those were extremely infrequent back then, and they are still extremely infrequent now.

 

[ColdFront]

How long has it been since we've seen an outbreak this massive?

In terms of total tor counts Easter 2020 ( or the great dec 15 2021 derecho)

In terms of total space it impacted, it’s been a long time.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

How long has it been since we've seen an outbreak this massive?

Easter 2020 I think.

 

[warneagle]

Yes, I stand corrected. I meant EF2+ long-trackers for the entire sequence.


I’ll readily admit to this, in part because I am personally tired of AGW-related hysteria (that tries to “prove” that AGW increases the incidence of severe weather, when evidence, in my view, points to the opposite).

I haven’t seen much in the way of peer-reviewed literature that suggests this, precisely because it’s difficult to prove a causative link between the deterministic effects of a large-scale process like climate change on a small-scale, highly random event like a tornado. I’d like to see both a causative mechanism for what you’re claiming and evidence that you’ve identified an actual effect at all that can’t be adequately explained by statistical noise. I’d also like to see the sources of the allegedly widespread claim of causative links between severe weather on a local scale and climate change, because I suspect that this claim isn’t actually very common among experts. I’m highly skeptical that you can demonstrate any of those three things.

 

[warneagle]

Using May 2003 as a benchmark for what tornado outbreaks "used to be" before climate change allegedly rendered them obsolete isn't fair because you're comparing an entire month to a single day, and 4/2003 was literally the most active month on record before 2011. Events like those were extremely infrequent back then, and they are still extremely infrequent now.

I’d love to know when the threshold is for tornado events that were affected by climate change and those that weren’t, considering that anthropogenic warming has likely been ongoing since the early 1970s and the +1 degree (F) mark was reached in the early 1990s. Is there empirical proof that we had to pass a certain temperature threshold for the effects on tornadoes to be detected? Color me skeptical.

 

[Telstar]

Oh would you just stop with this nit-picky nonsense.

Must agree with everyone else. Like that judge who said he couldn’t define pornography but knew it when he saw it: this was an outbreak.

 

[cincywx]

I haven’t seen much in the way of peer-reviewed literature that suggests this, precisely because it’s difficult to prove a causative link between the deterministic effects of a large-scale process like climate change on a small-scale, highly random event like a tornado. I’d like to see both a causative mechanism for what you’re claiming and evidence that you’ve identified an actual effect at all that can’t be adequately explained by statistical noise. I’d also like to see the sources of the allegedly widespread claim of causative links between severe weather on a local scale and climate change, because I suspect that this claim isn’t actually very common among experts. I’m highly skeptical that you can demonstrate any of those three things.

i also think its worth noting that events like friday are rare to begin with. you hardly ever get an overlap of necessary ingredients over such a wide area, and im not sure that the true frequency of this occurrence can be confidently adjudicated from the relatively limited amount of data we have (1950 - now). as such, im not sure their frequency would even palpably strengthen a claim that its related to climate change. that's not to say it is or is not related to cc, but it is to say its just not one of the solidest metrics