Casuarina Head
Member
Aren’t the climatologically-low heights relative to the mean rather than the individual members of the ensemble? If I am correct, then the orientation and location of the anomalies would not portend much. The 06Z EPS has, however, shifted slightly southward, while also depicting lower heights downstream. The surface reflection is even stronger vs. 00Z and hints at a dual structure, in line with a more pronounced negative tilt. Nevertheless, the overall trend is toward depth, not suppression, so I still do not see a major southward shift as of now.While the euro is pointing to those northern areas, i would be watching for a change...given the way the subtropical ridge has been flattening recently, climatology, plus the way the lower heights are still weighted toward the southwest, a southern trend could be coming.