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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

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While the euro is pointing to those northern areas, i would be watching for a change...given the way the subtropical ridge has been flattening recently, climatology, plus the way the lower heights are still weighted toward the southwest, a southern trend could be coming.
Aren’t the climatologically-low heights relative to the mean rather than the individual members of the ensemble? If I am correct, then the orientation and location of the anomalies would not portend much. The 06Z EPS has, however, shifted slightly southward, while also depicting lower heights downstream. The surface reflection is even stronger vs. 00Z and hints at a dual structure, in line with a more pronounced negative tilt. Nevertheless, the overall trend is toward depth, not suppression, so I still do not see a major southward shift as of now.
 

andyhb

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Some of these model forecasts for Tuesday are just simply off the charts. I don't want to start talking about historic potential 5 days out, but it's kind of hard to deny given the consensus from ensemble guidance.
 

warneagle

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Yeah I mean some of these forecast soundings are nuts. Like, if you gave me a pen and said draw me an outbreak sounding, it would probably look something like this (Kansas City at 7 pm on Tuesday).

gfs_2023033012_132_39.25--94.75.png
 

Timhsv

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Some of these model forecasts for Tuesday are just simply off the charts. I don't want to start talking about historic potential 5 days out, but it's kind of hard to deny given the consensus from ensemble guidance.
I'm not referring anything here at all, BUT, I'm with Andy. I lived in northern Jefferson County on the the night of April 3rd of 74". I've read every chart, analog, book, resource you can imagine, and my passion for weather/Meteorology started from that night 49 years ago next week.

There's just something here thou. Monitoring and waiting..
 

Edith

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Some of these model forecasts for Tuesday are just simply off the charts. I don't want to start talking about historic potential 5 days out, but it's kind of hard to deny given the consensus from ensemble guidance.
Yeah I don’t blame you however as I mentioned yesterday the writing seems to be on the wall so to speak. Hopefully the threat somehow gets tampered down
 

KCweatherboy

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Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general
 

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warneagle

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Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general
Yeah those analogs are concerning not just because they're big events but because you're getting hits for May-June thermodynamic environments for an early April event.
 

ColdFront

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Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general
I don’t think I’ve ever saw a 4/3/74 analog. When was the last lead up event that some models were showing that as an analog?

I’m a recent weather enthusiast(2-3 years) but I can’t imagine that’s something you see every day
 

KevinH

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While the euro is pointing to those northern areas, i would be watching for a change...given the way the subtropical ridge has been flattening recently, climatology, plus the way the lower heights are still weighted toward the southwest, a southern trend could be coming.
Wait. What do you mean when you say a SOUTHERN TREND……:oops:

?????
 

ColdFront

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Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general
MGM is Montgomery right? Wow
 

KevinH

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Yeah those analogs are concerning not just because they're big events but because you're getting hits for May-June thermodynamic environments for an early April event.
I noticed that too. IA and IL tend to have their severe weather after May… not in APRIL:oops:
 

andyhb

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Eh, IA and IL have had some very nasty March and April severe weather events (Palm Sunday 1920 and 1965 for example). It's their season for larger outbreaks too.
 
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