Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[tornado examiner]

Think around midnite

I know that…but what time….like specifically

 

[JBishopwx]

What time is the day 2 outlook issued again? For central standard time?

01:00 AM CST/ 11:30 AM CST.
Once time change in a couple weeks, it will still be at 1 AM, but afternoon update 12:30 PM

 

[KevinH]

What time is the day 2 outlook issued again? For central standard time?

They only issue D2 twice a day.

Around 11:30am CST and 1am CST. The next D2 that comes out (and 1am CT) will not be for tomorrow, but for Thursday.

Side note: If you look at the bottom of each D1-3 outlook, it will tell you when the next one will be issued

For future reference:

SPC Products

Severe weather information from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[tornado examiner]

KK

 

[MattPetrulli]

Good point, adding tomorrow’s states would make the thread title longer. Now that the event covers a wider area over several days and numerous states than previously thought, so I’ve renamed the thread. My thread titling will be back though lol

I hope everyone is aware and stays SAFE. Don’t be a darn Clem!!!

Thank you, sometimes I look at prior severe weather event threads on this website and other forums and the titling of some threads makes it so so hard to find. This titling will make it so much easier for future purposes.

 

[KevinH]

Thank you, sometimes I look at prior severe weather event threads on this website and other forums and the titling of some threads makes it so so hard to find. This titling will make it so much easier for future purposes.

Yw… If it was not for tomorrow though, I would have kept the title the same lol

 

[JBishopwx]

I have a PDF file i can send via email with model and outlooks times if anyone interested. Send your email via DM and i be happy to send it to you.

 

[KevinH]

Also for those who want to convert Z Time to their time zone:

READY Tools - Time Conversion Table

www.ready.noaa.gov

*IF* you are willing to do some quick mental math, you can easily figure out what time a Z time is in your time zone.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

00z hrrr really wants a hefty MCS to work over Arkansas wensday night into early Thursday morning, yikes.

It's really trying to setup up a boundary heavy event for Thursday with Wednesdays broken MCS. it's pretty scary at the potential boundaries that will be layed down near central missippi and the Louisiana Arkansas border....

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

00z hrrr really wants a hefty MCS to work over Arkansas wensday night into early Thursday morning, yikes.

It's really trying to setup up a boundary heavy event for Thursday with Wednesdays broken MCS. it's pretty scary at the potential boundaries that will be layed down near central missippi and the Louisiana Arkansas border....

Looks like could lay several out flow
Boundaries

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Kinda confused at the 00z hrrr depiction of Thursday... Lol somebody with more experience should break it down, with the complicated mesoscale features

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Kinda confused at the 00s hrrr depiction of Thursday.

Which is...?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Which is...?

The MCS brings down the stationary warm front all the way to central Alabama. Instead of the storms riding along it like it's been showing. Gunna say this runs a little wack and see what the 06z says tommorow.

The 00z hrrr is the outlier to most other models and comparably to the more reliable WRF at this range. So I'm going to toss that solution. Going to side with the WRF and say a hefty MCS won't happen unless it rides the boundary due east. But most aren't showing a robust MCS event like the 00z hrrr.

 

[JPWX]

00z hrrr really wants a hefty MCS to work over Arkansas wensday night into early Thursday morning, yikes.

It's really trying to setup up a boundary heavy event for Thursday with Wednesdays broken MCS. it's pretty scary at the potential boundaries that will be layed down near central missippi and the Louisiana Arkansas border....

That's one thing I'm worried about and I just mentioned my concern about a greater tornado threat Thursday due to the leftover outflow boundaries to my friend Matthew Cappucci.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I mean if the 00z hrrr is correct central Alabama would have a chance at a high end shear instability threat (doubt anything would form though) way ahead of the OG Thursday event lol. I mean good grief 3km ehi lol

 

[KevinH]

I mean if the 00z hrrr is correct central Alabama would have a chance at a high end shear instability threat (doubt anything would form though) way ahead of the OG Thursday event lol. I mean good grief 3km ehi lol View attachment 18371

That doesn’t look AS BAD as what’s going on west of there

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That doesn’t look AS BAD as what’s going on west of there

Definetly, just kinda odd this solution lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

00z nam has slowed down the system a bit, your probably looking at a prime heating event for Alabama. Waiting for the nam to finish.

 

[KevinH]

00z nam has slowed down the system a bit, your probably looking at a prime heating event for Alabama. Waiting for the nam to finish.

Oh joy!

/sarcasm OFF

LOL

Thanks for your posts… keep them coming!

 

[Richardjacks]

00z nam has slowed down the system a good bit, your probably looking at a prime heating event for Alabama. Waiting for the nam to finish.

I have had little time to look at things.....selling my hone and moving, so it's crazy for me right now.
If nam is coming in slower, I am pretty sure the low will be well occluded and drier and warmer air will rotate in ahead of the cold air. If not, there could be trouble, but juat the way this has been looking, my bet is an occlusion with maybe some hailers.