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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

JBishopwx said:
Been using WeatherBell since it has numbers instead of the others. ‍O well.
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I think they may have updated some of there inputs on ingredients, it may be better than it used to be. If we are comparing it to cod meteorology it's under doing it's parameters.

It's kindve crazy but a lot of these sites like cod meteorology, pivotal weather and such have different values or inputs don't know how to describe it. With pivotal weather the updraft swaths are always more "violent/dangerous looking" while cod meteorologies are usually rather low.

Weather bell though is eye candy keep sending them!
 
JBishopwx said:
Been using WeatherBell since it has numbers instead of the others. ‍O well.
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I wouldn't worry about it. If it was a bigger issue, they would have changed it by now. I've been using it for years and think nothing of it.
 
HOLD UP. This is a sounding from central Alabama around 2-3 o'clock Thursday. That's a pretty good sounding better backed winds than I thought it would be. 21z rap is interesting.
Big ole plume of high EHI. 1KM not so much but usually 1km will be lower. Screenshot_2023-02-14-19-01-11-22_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg2023021421_RAP_047_32.93,-87.87_severe_ml.png
Screenshot_2023-02-14-19-01-33-13_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
NWS bham says, wether this becomes a significant severe event for central alabama in the open warm sector will be up to mesoscale features the day of. But there will be severe storms near or along the line when it moves through, but a more robust open warm sector supercells threat will be dependent on mesoscale features.

"The main limiting factor
potentially preventing a more significant event with supercells out
in the warm sector will continue to be the lack of height falls with
the trough well to the west and a strong ridge to our southeast,
with mid-level flow being neither cyclonic or anti-cyclonic. This
could be overcome by any mesoscale type waves in the flow aloft, but
these wouldn`t be discernible until much closer to the event."
 
Fo91pFPXgAEK51N

This grabs my attention now. Indications IMO if supercells do form, and will, a strong tornado or two is not out of the question. I see an upgrade risk coming
with SPC Day 1. HRRR data is reflecting an increase as well in severe probabilities to some extent as well.
 
Norman Smith
@Norman_Wx


Current thoughts for early TA's on Thursday at 18z on the 18z HRRR (I know both are target 1 my bad lol, MS/AL/TN is target 2). Better kinematics further north with more open WS further south but more displaced from Kinematics but still potent. Not chasing Wednesday but Thursday looking more potent (Imo)

Fo9JcXyXgAYfguN
 
Timhsv said:
Norman Smith
@Norman_Wx


Current thoughts for early TA's on Thursday at 18z on the 18z HRRR (I know both are target 1 my bad lol, MS/AL/TN is target 2). Better kinematics further north with more open WS further south but more displaced from Kinematics but still potent. Not chasing Wednesday but Thursday looking more potent (Imo)

Fo9JcXyXgAYfguN
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Did you make that map yourself? If so Its pretty good, straight to the point.
 
Won't let me post the image I took, but Matt at WTVA-Tupelo mentioned that Severe threat peaks Thursday as timing
has slowed some, which means likely the greatest threat of tornadoes during that time for NE MS/W. Alabama
 
Richardjacks said:
In looking at the 0z runs so far, I am starting to get concerned about central and north AL Thu afternoon and evening. The subtle forcing aloft that look to be arriving will likely be enough to spark some convection during the afternoon in what looks to be a large warm sector.
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Love your informative posts! Please keep it up as often as you can.
 
Richardjacks said:
In looking at the 0z runs so far, I am starting to get concerned about central and north AL Thu afternoon and evening. The subtle forcing aloft that look to be arriving will likely be enough to spark some convection during the afternoon in what looks to be a large warm sector.
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What's the chance significant cloud breaks occur over those areas? Waiting on the WRF cloud fraction to pull up but it's lagging behind in hours. The one thing that I'm looking for is some decent low level lapse rates 6.5-7 to get some of these robust updrafts going. Some of the previous runs have showed spotty elevated low level lapse rates in portions of south and south central Alabama but not in the northern half.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
What's the chance significant cloud breaks occur over those areas? Waiting on the WRF cloud fraction to pull up but it's lagging behind in hours. The one thing that I'm looking for is some decent low level lapse rates 6.5-7 to get some of these robust updrafts going. Some of the previous runs have showed spotty elevated low level lapse rates in portions of south and south central Alabama but not in the northern half.
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Shocker…..
 
JBishopwx said:
Won't let me post the image I took, but Matt at WTVA-Tupelo mentioned that Severe threat peaks Thursday as timing
has slowed some, which means likely the greatest threat of tornadoes during that time for NE MS/W. Alabama
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Matt is very good. I wish the television website was easier to link to his videos because he's very thorough. I always tell my mom if you don't hear from me make sure you listen to him because Matt knows his stuff.
 
KevinH said:
So where can people watch his videos if not the news website?
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Yeah, the site has been having issues for a while. Coverage on his Facebook page and regular apps and Ruku app. He sometimes posts clips from past coverage on his YouTube page.
 
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