• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

xJownage said:
Sure, if you get downwards motion/subsidence/divergence behind the MCS. But then you need enough time for airmass recovery, and that subsidence can cause issues too when an EML is present even if your WAA is really strong. This is why events with morning MCS' are often so hard to forecast. They can be constructive or destructive to the environment, and which can often be hard to predict in advance before you get sounding data in its wake.
Click to expand...
I'm guessing a positive tilt trough would be a downward motion factor?
 
xJownage said:
Sure, if you get downwards motion/subsidence/divergence behind the MCS. But then you need enough time for airmass recovery, and that subsidence can cause issues too when an EML is present even if your WAA is really strong. This is why events with morning MCS' are often so hard to forecast. They can be constructive or destructive to the environment, and which can often be hard to predict in advance before you get sounding data in its wake.
Click to expand...
What's the chances of everything going wrong Thursday lol in your opionon? Say the MCS comes through leaves a cold pool and some boundaries and sun comes out and the LLJ kicks in and boosts instability and recovers. Seems like the MCS is optimal timing for airmass recovery imo
 
DCAPE values look elevated. I would like to see more high res data within the 48 hr window, but could see a potential enhance risk Thursday for areas in the 60% or greater odds shown on this graphic.

scp odds.png
 
Last edited:
Jackson AFD:
Favorable SREF sig tor ingredients and CWASP have been hitting a little harder on the Wednesday afternoon activity in MS River corridor to northwest Delta and less on the overnight to Thursday activity.
 
Look at the gap of higher theta e values in georgia and southeast Alabama compared to the RAP. Big difference. Having that unstable air already in place for peak heating later that day won't be good.

The previous severe weather event we had. We're low on theta e on the nam and globals and low on instability. But then the HRRR/ RAP / WRF came in a bumped the theta e and the they started to compensate on instability after a few runs it seemed.
 
Check out the dewpoints just off in the gulf on the RAP compared to the NAM.

This will be a factor in how unstable the air that's pulled into the deep south from the LLJ. Id expect a sharp increase in instability soon once the the short range models get into range HRRR LR, RAP, WRF.Screenshot_2023-02-13-19-56-55-60_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-02-13-19-56-25-53_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
What's the chances of everything going wrong Thursday lol in your opionon? Say the MCS comes through leaves a cold pool and some boundaries and sun comes out and the LLJ kicks in and boosts instability and recovers. Seems like the MCS is optimal timing for airmass recovery imo
Click to expand...
The fact we are still in February vs March/Apr means if there is a cold pool, there is less chance of recovery. The sun angle is still a bit low compared to later in the season. However, even with lower sun angle, the necessary amount of time may be there for full recovery.
 
Richardjacks said:
The fact we are still in February vs March/Apr means if there is a cold pool, there is less chance of recovery. The sun angle is still a bit low compared to later in the season. However, even with lower sun angle, the necessary amount of time may be there for full recovery. Also, I will add, given the orientation of the trough plus the readily available moisture, the cold pool would have to be quite established...just not sure that will be an issue.
Click to expand...
 
The ejection of the surface low and upper level low is a good 50-100 miles southeast of where it was ejecting on the nam and globals ***(correction just abit of a nudge southeast thought it was a lot more but pulled them up side by side lol and it wasn't as drastic.) . and considerbly deeper by a good 4 mbs that a drastic change almost a sub 1000mb low. Right before or when it's ejecting.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
The ejection of the surface low and upper level low is a good 50-100 miles southeast of where it was ejecting on the nam and globals ***(correction just abit of a nudge southeast thought it was a lot more but pulled them up side by side lol and it wasn't as drastic.) . and considerbly deeper by a good 4 mbs that a drastic change almost a sub 1000mb low. Right before or when it's ejecting.
Click to expand...
no offense, but is this your job?
 
nam_2023021400_069_34.8--86.8.png

00ZNAM is at it again. Taken on Limestone/ Madison Co. line at 21Z Thursday. Look at the 0-1km SRH and the CAPE. Also 62knts of BULK Shear and Critical Angle at 63.
Gonna have to watch development just out ahead of front over North Alabama without a doubt IMO.
 
Last edited:
Timhsv said:
nam_2023021400_069_34.8--86.8.png

00ZNAM is at it again. Taken on Limestone/ Madison Co. line at 21Z Thursday. Look at the 0-1km SRH and the CAPE. Also 62knts of BULK Shear and Critical Angle at 63.
Gonna have to watch development just out ahead of front over North Alabama without a doubt IMO.
Click to expand...
N and C AL and C MS are the “Oklahomas of the South”. Their proximity to the gulf (which allows storm fuel to surge in from
gulf), along with the other ingredients that can come together just make them a “target”….. Over and over and over… so sad SMH

Appreciate you posting the sounding. Keep it up!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top